Timing is everything when betting on NFL futures, and now is the time to buy the New Orleans Saints.
After a hot start to the season with wins over the Panthers and Cowboys for a combined 91 points, the Saints lost twice by one score to the Eagles and Falcons, the latter of which changed the equation. A power in the NFC South.
This week's NFL Futures column focuses on New Orleans. Here's why the Saints' first two games were nothing but a mirage.
But before we get there, let's take a look at my growing NFL futures portfolio for the first four weeks.
2024 NFL Futures Betting
Best bets for week 5: New Orleans Saints win NFC South (+220, FanDuel)
The Saints travel to Kansas City this week to face the defending champions, one of two clubs remaining undefeated through four games. However, considering the Chiefs currently have injuries in their skill position groups, this game looks like a perfect win.
Even with a loss, New Orleans still has home games against the Buccaneers and Falcons in divisional play, as well as winnable games against the Broncos, Chargers and Panthers.
Derek Carr remains Pro Football Focus' top-tier quarterback, and coach Clint Kubiak's new Saints offense has been transformative, even if it's looked worse the past two weeks. The Saints still rank in the top eight in offensive DVOA and EPA, outpacing every other team in the division.
Coach Kubiak uses Carr on play-action with the third-highest dropback rate in the NFL, and he is the league's highest-rated passer on play-action.
The offensive line remains a significant weakness, but Kubiak has found ways to coach to compensate for it, and play-action passing is definitely an effective way to do that.
New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFC South, ranking in the top five in DVOA and EPA.
Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Marshon Lattimore continue to be an elite tandem in the secondary, Kool-Aid McKinstry hit the ground running in his rookie season and Alonte Taylor made plays all over the field at nickelback.
The edgy duo of Carl Granderson and Chase Young is also effective, which is important with Cameron Jordan retiring at age 35.
Best bets on futures for week 5
If you want to wait and see if the Saints can put up even better numbers if they lose to the Chiefs this week, I don't blame you, but New Orleans is poised for a primetime upset at Arrowhead I believe it may be.
Even if they do manage to win, it will likely be too late to capture this number, which is of any temporary value. They currently trail both the Falcons (+165) and Buccaneers (+195).
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
FTN Fantasy has the Saints favorites to win the NFC South (48.2%) despite losing to Atlanta last week. FanDuel's +220 odds represent an implied probability of 31.3%, which is significant.
I'll add the Saints to my portfolio this week and hedge against the Falcons or Buccaneers later this season.
Best bet: Saints win NFC South (+220, FanDuel)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
