Jared Goff’s advanced stats on NFL ‘perfect game’ are mind-blowing

If we don't get quarterback of the week after making history monday night footballyou literally don't have to do anything to get recognition. Jared Goff knows what it's like. do not have Taking credit for a win is usually very difficult for a quarterback, let alone a No. 1 draft pick.

Goff could be the first No. 1 quarterback in history to avoid overrating.

Completion Percentage Above Expectations (abbreviated CPOE) is a statistic that measures how much higher or lower than the expected completion percentage a quarterback can manage to complete, based on the expected difficulty of each pass. So, if Next Gen Stats' NFL analytics department considers the expected completion rate for a game to be 60%, and a quarterback ends up completing 70%, that quarterback's CPOE is +10%.

Well, with 18 wins out of 18 vs. seattle seahawks On Monday night, Goff set a 2024 season high with a CPOE+ of 21.9%, marking the first time this season he was above 21%. Looking at Goff's pass chart on Next Gen Stats, not all of his passes were gimmes, which is not at all surprising for a player who completes 100% of his passes.

In fact, according to Next Gen Stats, the probability that a quarterback will make 18 of 18 on these throws is 0.69%, or 1 in 145.

In other words, even if you played this game 144 times (a quarterback would have to start 8 1/2 years to start that many times!), there is no guarantee that he would make 18 out of 18 games.

Not only did Goff complete all 18 of his attempts, but the Lions gained 292 yards on those passes.Goff's 16.2 yards per attempt is also the highest in an NFL game by a QB this season.They scored two touchdowns and Amon-Ra St. Brown capped off a perfect night with a sweet little touchdown pass to Goff.

Goff earned 0.88 EPA per dropback, the highest mark by a QB in any game this season. And the Lions converted play-action 62% of the time, which is also the most of any team in any game this season.

And the history of 100% completion percentage in the NFL basically ends when we talk about Jared Goff.

Jared Goff's roughly six predecessors in the Rams organization, Kurt Warner, previously went 10-of-10 for 115 yards with the Cardinals in 2005. There is no example in modern times where it makes sense to compete 100% with Goff. Complete games are made because it is extremely rare.

But just to name one imperfection, Jared Goff isn't even close to his best game of all time.

In 2019, Drew Brees went 29-of-30 for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a win over the Colts. In 2018, Philip Rivers went 28-of-29 for 259 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Cardinals. Marcus Mariota once won 22 of 23 games. Brock Purdy once won 20 of 21 games. And Gardner Minshew once made 19 of 20 shots.

Perhaps the only difference is that Jared Goff pitched an incompletion during the game, but the game was called off to offset the penalty. That's why Goff's completion rate is perfect. It didn't hurt that the Lions had so much play-action, or that Goff went 8-of-8 for 203 yards and 12-of-12 for 229 yards against the Blitz. When he had at least 2.5 seconds left before throwing (Goff had the 10th best throw time per game among QBs this season), Goff completed 15 of 15 for 250 yards and a pass. Both touchdowns were successful.

So was this the most accurate game ever made? In some ways, it might be. But what was really impressive about Goff's night was that he faced Seahawks head coach and defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, arguably the best in the business as of the last two years, and Seattle tried to stop him. He had an answer for everything. Rotating him the wrong way didn't help either.

It helped that Goff had an elite offensive line, play-callers and weapons around him.

It helped that the Seahawks had five starters out of their front seven and were short-handed by losing Pro Bowl safety Julian Love in the first half of the game.

DK Metcalf gave the ball back to the Lions on a fumble in the first quarter, setting up Goff's drive at Seattle's 14 for a quick and easy 14-0 lead at home.

But without help, luck, and opportunity, no quarterback can be successful. Goff seemed to start missing out on opportunities around the time he was traded to Detroit in 2021, and opportunities slipped even further from his hands when the Lions won three games in his first season there, but patience It was because of strength and, yes, help. –Goff has been doing really well this season, so he might finally start to get better…Overrated.

Finally!

as editor-in-chief turf show timeWe saw the fan reaction to trading Goff for Matthew Stafford in 2021, and without discrediting the few people who still loved Goff that were left at the time, the majority of people thought the Lions simply The expectation was to cut him and absorb the cap hit. Jared Goff's stock price was this low three years ago.: Even the fans who knew him best and watched him play for the Rams. in super bowl He thought he had become a camp body.

That much, it is The popular narrative, then and now, was that the Rams should have given the Lions an extra first-round pick. To get Jared Goff out of their hands.

It's nothing short of a miracle that the Rams won a Super Bowl with Stafford and never had to think about that question again. But there will always be people who say L.A.'s biggest mistake was putting the blame on the quarterback, including the few fans who didn't want Goff replaced in the first place.

Three years later, Goff signed a new contract extension worth $53 million per season, making him richer than ever and now starting on a team that most people call the best in the NFC. It's about as far away from the Rams as you can get, but I don't think Goff would have had it any other way.

he is overrated. he has been underrated. If Jared Goff is always a really good starting quarterback, then the player who just completed every pass will eventually Completed cycle.