Much better-than-expected jobs numbers, released just hours after the longshore workers' strike was abruptly called off, are providing momentum and relief to Vice President Harris' campaign.
The port strike threatens to cripple the economy and is the most politically threatening of the three recent challenges facing Harris and the White House.
The White House has pushed for an early end to the strike, putting strong pressure on both the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) to come to the table in the days before and after the longshoremen walked off the job. Ta.
The strike halted most activity at ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast after the two countries failed to reach an agreement by midnight Monday, threatening to wreak havoc on the economy just a month after the election. .
But the longshore workers' union and a coalition of companies operating at ports in the eastern United States reached a tentative agreement Thursday night to end the strike after two days.
The big draw for Democrats was Friday's jobs report, which showed the labor market remained strong despite concerns that it would weaken this summer.
The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, well above the 140,000 jobs expected by economists. Upward revisions for July and August added an additional 72,000 jobs over the two-month period, but also indicate that early signs of weakness were not as pronounced as first appeared. .
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% last month, similarly dispelling previous concerns about rising unemployment.
The positive jobs report came as inflation inched closer to the Federal Reserve's target. After reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, the inflation rate has eased significantly, falling to 2.5% as of August this year.
Friday's jobs report also showed that wage growth has significantly outpaced inflation, with average hourly wages increasing by 4% over the past year.
The central bank, which had raised interest rates to 20-year highs in the face of rising prices, began cutting interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time last month, signaling an end to the fight against inflation.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, gave a glowing assessment of the economy.
“September's jobs report confirms my view that the economy is just about as good as it can be,” Zandi wrote on social platform X. “The economy is creating many jobs in many industries, consistent with strong labor force growth, and therefore unemployment remains low and stable.”
“The economy is at full employment, nothing more, nothing less,” he continued. “Inflation is low and stable, given that wage growth is strong and productivity has improved significantly. You can't paint a more beautiful picture for the jobs market and the broader economy.”
President Biden made his first appearance in the White House press briefing room since taking office, touting the latest employment figures and a quick resolution to the strike.
“We've had some very good news about the U.S. economy over the last two days,” Biden said Friday.
“Just yesterday, shipping companies, in consultation with the International Longshoremen's Union, reached an agreement to keep East Coast and Gulf ports open,” he continued. “We averted what could have been a major crisis for this country.”
“Today we have even more surprising news,” the president added, pointing to the September jobs report.
Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Institute and former White House chief economist, said the end of the port strike and strong jobs numbers are both “good news for the economy” and, as a result, good for Harris. He said that. Council of Economic Advisers.
“Harris is not literally running for re-election, but she comes out of the current administration and is being judged based on the current economic climate,” Tedeschi told The Hill. “Anything good in the current economy, whether fair or unfair, will probably help her.”
The vice president, who has lagged behind former President Trump on the economy since entering the race in late July, has gained some advantages over his Republican opponent over the past two months.
In a Marist poll conducted in September, when asked which candidate would handle the economy better, Harris trailed Trump by just 4 points. The same poll conducted in June showed Biden trailing Trump by 9 points.
A Fox News poll conducted last month similarly endorsed Biden's economic numbers, with Biden trailing Trump by just 5 points, compared to the 15-point lead between him and the former president in March. Ta.
But Ms. Harris still lags Mr. Trump on key issues, especially in close elections. The vice president currently leads the former president by just 3.4 percentage points, according to Hill Decision Desk's average poll.
A prolonged port attack would have made the situation even more difficult for Harris. Experts estimate that business shutdowns could cost the economy up to $5 billion a day and would begin to cause consumer disruption after several weeks.
“Port strikes carry significant risks of future inflation, especially short-term inflation that is very similar to the inflation seen during the pandemic,” Tedeschi said. “We've had a lot of supply chain bottleneck inflation during the pandemic, and this brings back that unpleasant experience.”
Under a tentative agreement reached on Thursday, dockworkers will see their wages rise by 62% over the course of their six-year contract. The two sides also agreed to extend the current contract until January 15 in order to “return to the negotiating table to negotiate all other outstanding issues.”
Signs of a weakening labor market this summer could also pose challenges for Harris and other members of the Biden administration.
A weaker-than-expected July jobs report raised concerns that the Fed may wait too long to cut interest rates and risk sliding the economy into recession.
The central bank opted for a deep rate cut at its September meeting, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stood by his decision to keep rates unchanged as much as possible, a move that appears to be borne out by the latest numbers.
But the Trump campaign used Friday's jobs report to focus Harris on issues such as manufacturing, immigration and the lasting effects of inflation.
“As foreign countries benefit from Harris' weak economic policies, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have returned to a penniless position and have lost track of past “We lost 34,000 manufacturing jobs in two months.”
Levitt also said that the administration's “open border policies” have “destroyed” 825,000 jobs for native-born Americans in the past year, while 120 jobs for foreign-born workers were lost in the same period. He claimed that the number of people increased by 10,000.
But this trend largely reflects the rush of U.S.-born baby boomers to retire from the job market.
Several economists, including Tedeschi, listed in X The percentage of American-born people with jobs is at the highest level since the federal government began tracking the data.
