It's Week 5 of the NFL season. We're back with three more player props on our Sunday schedule.
I'm 8-1 with NFL prop picks this season. This week, we're looking to find more winners using a reliable strategy of targeting the Commanders and Colts pass defenses.
Amari Cooper 49.5+ receiving yards (-120, DraftKings)
It's been a tough start to the season for the Browns offense, which ranks 31st in EPA/play.
Amari Cooper made a big contribution with a league-leading eight drops.
He only had seven last season, but he needs to improve on that going forward.
Cooper caught an 82-yard bomb for a touchdown last week, but it was ruled out by a penalty.
If that play is correct, I doubt we'll see Cooper's 49.5 point line this week given the attractive matchup.
The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA (Adjusted Defensive Value Above Average) and have allowed four receivers to gain at least 50 yards this season.
Cooper still ranks seventh in the NFL with a 46.8 percent air yard share and 18th with a 25 percent target share.
He's slated to take some positive regression with a 43.2 percent catch rate, ranking second-to-last among all receivers with at least 25 targets this season.
Deshaun Watson 1.5+ passing touchdowns (+170, DraftKings)
Watson needs at least two passing touchdowns in two consecutive games and played well last week, finishing with a passing grade of 88.5 on Pro Football Focus (his highest score in a Browns jersey). did.
The coach allowed 16 of 21 opposing quarterbacks to score two or more passing touchdowns.
That list includes names like Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Tyrod Taylor and Desmond Ridder.
Tight end David Njoku is also expected to return this week, giving the Browns another big physical threat near the goal line.
Brian Thomas Jr. Receiving Yards 50.5+ (-120, BetMGM)
The rookie has increased his involvement in the Jaguars' offense week by week, achieving a season-high first-read target share of 33.3 percent last week.
This sets up incredibly well against the Colts, who rank outside the top 20 against the pass in seemingly every advanced metric.
The Colts are hitting Cover 3s 43.1 percent of the time, fourth-best in the NFL, and Thomas has hit Cover 3s this season.
He ranks 10th in the league with 3.97 yards per route run against that coverage type.
Trevor Lawrence also performs best against that coverage, ranking 7th in accurate throw rate against Cover 3 and 32nd against all other coverage types.
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Indianapolis has lost badly to WR1 this season. George Pickens (7-113), DJ Moore (8-78), Romeo Odunze (6-112-1), Romeo Doubes (3-62), Nico Collins (6-117) All achieved good results.
The Colts also have a number of injuries on defense, including top cornerback Kenny Moore, who could miss Sunday's game.
I expected this line to open at least in the mid-50s, but it started at 49.5 and quickly moved to 51.5.
There's a lot of value there considering Thomas' elite fundamental metrics and an exceptional matchup with a Cover 3, badly injured Colts defense that has shed yards to wide receivers this year.
Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as wind and rain could affect Jacksonville's passing attack.
There is a 90% chance of precipitation and winds are expected to be between 16 and 15 mph.
