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Reporter’s Notebook: With no government shutdown, it feels like Christmas in September

Orange and yellow triangular candy corns are spread all over the house. Reese's Cups have transformed from their original fluted wafer shape to chocolate and peanut butter pumpkins. The dog regularly freaks out when you take it for a walk, and when you turn a corner in your neighborhood, a mechanical ghoul starts laughing with an evil laugh.

The calendar switched seamlessly from September to October. It’s been seamless, especially in Congress. And although September is “shutdown season” for the U.S. Capitol, Congress escaped unscathed this year. Bipartisan lawmakers approved a stopgap spending measure to keep the lights on through Dec. 20. That's why those who work at the Capitol or for the federal government can enjoy the Halloween season this October. They don't need to focus on “continuing resolutions” to keep the government afloat. They can instead embrace emergence rather than appropriation.

September's salvation also saved next month's Thanksgiving. Congress typically approves one or two stopgap spending bills each fall. Depending on the parliamentary schedule, and if it is an election year, the government could continue to govern until mid-October or later. Some people panto until just before or after Thanksgiving.

But this year's emergency spending plan is special. Funding the government for the fall. Throughout October. Throughout November. It expires just before Christmas. So can everyone in the Capitol celebrate Christmas? Don't count on it.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D.N.Y. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call, via Getty Images)

We have Halloween and Thanksgiving. 2 out of 3 aren't bad.

“Why did you choose Dec. 20?” asked Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) during a meeting of the House Rules Committee preparing the extraordinary spending measure. “Because it's the same reason we always do it. [with] December 20th. Everyone here is human. There are no AIs or robots in Congress. And when December 20th arrives, there are only 5 days left until Christmas. There are only 4 days left until Christmas Eve. And you really want to be there with your family. This is when leadership here has the greatest impact. ”

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Massey argues that bipartisan Congressional leaders chose such days to maximize their influence on lawmakers. The proximity of the holiday will help government leaders vie for votes to pass another spending plan (anything) to avoid a holiday government shutdown.

Massie said he's been in meetings where the House speaker basically threatened Republicans, telling them they “better vote yes” on spending bills.

”[He] comes in and says, “If you vote for this, you can go home and unwrap presents with your kids.'' If you don't vote for this, you'll be spending Christmas here with Nancy Pelosi. ” and a chant of “Vote!” begins. Vote! Vote! Vote! 'Literally, people passionately vote for things they haven't read,' Massey said.

A soupcon of jet exhaust fumes will fill Parliament House in mid-December as MPs try to fund the government and avoid a Christmas shutdown. The question is: how long will the spending plan be in place? The calendar year will start in 2025? Maybe until February? Perhaps in late March as some conservatives claim? Or will lawmakers actually reach agreement on 12 annual spending bills, or will they vote down several bills one by one?

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has ruled out an “omnibus.” He also talks about the operation of “minibuses”. So they criticize several spending measures collectively. It's not an “omnibus”. It's smaller, so it's compared to Volkswagen.

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But the duration of another interim spending plan will likely depend on which party controls the House and Senate next year and who wins the White House. The president-elect's wishes will likely force lawmakers to bend the spending bill in his direction.

But the goal in September was to avoid a shutdown and rush to resolve the difficult matters later.

“We're running out of time. We can't afford to shut down,” House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said last month. “This path would spare Americans the unnecessary punishment of a costly government shutdown and, importantly, would allow the next president to have a say in the spending process.”

The Democratic-controlled Senate moved forward with a zero-spending bill this year, but the Republican-controlled House of Representatives fared better, approving five spending measures. But Cole blamed some of the legislative stumbles on his own Republican colleagues.

“We are the majority, and the majority should govern,” Cole said.

He added that it was “unfortunate” that the House Republican majority had to turn to Democrats again to avoid a government shutdown.

That's why Cole and others are hoping the House can kill some, if not all, of the remaining unpaid spending bills after the election. If you don't, you're in for a disastrous holiday season.

Like Massey, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) warned against “the crazy, massive omnibus trains that are inevitable for anything that happens right before Christmas.”

So how does Mr. Johnson plan to deal with this? In particular, is there a distinct possibility that Congress will have to back FEMA with an “urgent needs” bill around the same time lawmakers return in mid-November? Then there's the issue of December closures. And not to mention approving plans to deal with Hurricanes Helen and Milton and other natural disasters.

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By the way, if it becomes clear that Democrats lose the Senate, lose the House of Representatives, and lose the presidency, there is a good chance that Democrats will think twice about supporting Republican spending bills. This could well begin former President Donald Trump's potential second term under a government shutdown.

Mike Johnson is in hot water as he tries to fund the government, deal with multiple crises, and satisfy enraged conservatives who are already complaining about his leadership and are perhaps clinging to power. There are a lot of problems. If Republicans retain their majority, a false play claim could jeopardize Mr. Johnson's position in the Jan. 3 speaker election.

Johnson after last week's final vote.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call, via Getty Images)

But what is the correct play call for Johnson? No one knows. Mr Johnson sought to appease the right with a spending plan that included a citizenship requirement on the ballot last month. But Republicans couldn't even pass their own bill. In other words, pandering to the fringes does not automatically guarantee success in the House Republican conference.

But despite that, there was little drama in passing a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown at the end of September.

This opens the door for Capitol Hill residents to enjoy the rest of the month. Enjoy Halloween in October. Even Thanksgiving.

But Christmas? That must be a joke.

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Christmas can be tough.

Face it. Christmas came early this year. In September. There was no government shutdown.

That's why this year's Christmas could be a nightmare.

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