The 120th Red River Rivalry begins this weekend with top-ranked Texas taking on No. 18 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.
Texas leads the series 63-51-5 overall, but is just 3-7 in its last 10 games, including its only loss of the regular season, a 34-30 loss in 2023. . The win was sweet revenge for Oklahoma, which suffered a 49-0 shutout loss to Texas in 2022.
Oklahoma is undergoing a change at the quarterback position and could be without several key players on Saturday, but they are at a disadvantage when it comes to scoring more than two touchdowns.
So the Sooners may be destined for a slow start Saturday as they try to adjust to personnel changes.
Texas vs. Oklahoma odds
| team | spread | money line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| texas | -14.5 (-112) | -700 | o49 (-110) |
| oklahoma | +14.5 (-108) | +500 | u49 (-110) |
texas perspective
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will return to the starting lineup this week after missing more than two games with an oblique muscle strain.
While backup quarterback Arch Manning has led Texas to back-to-back wins, coach Steve Sarkisian is trying to get Ewers back in the saddle.
If Ewers was an inexperienced quarterback, I would be concerned about him coming back in such a big spot. But he has already appeared in two games for the Red River Rivalry since earning the starting spot as a redshirt freshman in 2022.
According to Game On Paper, Texas ranks second in adjusted expected points added (+0.54) and Oklahoma State ranks 49th (+0.08).
The Longhorns also rank 5th in net yards per play (+3.15) compared to Oklahoma State's 93rd (-0.30). The University of Oklahoma's defense is said to be good, but this is a significant yardage deficit for the team to overcome.
oklahoma outlook
The Texas injury report is pretty clean, but the Sooners aren't that healthy.
Top wide receiver Deion Burks, who is suffering from a soft tissue injury, will not play Saturday. The junior and Purdue transfer leads the receiving corps in touchdowns (3), yards (201) and receptions (26).
Burks joins a crowded list of Oklahoma wide receivers who will miss the game, including Jalil Farooq, Nick Anderson, Andrell Anthony and Jaden Gibson. When the teams met last year, Farooq had 130 receiving yards and Anderson caught the winning touchdown.
Oklahoma's wide receiving room is so depleted that they may even convert some defensive backs to fill the void.
Additionally, the Sooners have a third different starting quarterback following Dillon Gabriel's transfer to Oregon and Brent Venables' decision to replace Jackson-Arnold with Michael Hawkins Jr.
Turnovers played a big role in the quarterback change, but some wonder if Hawkins can hold his nerve as the first true freshman to start a Red River Rivalry game. Probably.
Texas vs. Oklahoma picks
Hawkins is in a difficult situation with many of his key weapons malfunctioning, but what he can't do is turn the ball over. Without the best receiver on the field, it will take time to establish a rhythm.
Additionally, Oklahoma's running game isn't great considering it ranks 94th in expected points added per attempt (-0.04) and 124th in rushing success rate (32.9%).
The best way to utilize this information is to fade Hawkins and the Sooners in the first half.
Do you want to bet on college football?
According to Action Network, the Longhorns are 16-9 in the first half under Sarkisian's lead when they are up by 10 points or less.
This handicap is further strengthened with last season's revenge angle.
Best bet: Texas 1H -7 (-120, bet 365)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. During his betting career, he has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay, including eight games in the Little League World Series. Most recently, they accurately selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and Copa America.
