The Post's Eric Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 6 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Packers (-5) vs. Cardinals
According to Pro Football Focus, the Cardinals have the third-worst pass defense, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.
I think Green Bay is this year's Super Bowl team, but it all starts here.
In Week 6, Josh Jacobs goes on a rampage, Romeo Dubs plays well, and they beat the Packers -5.
Bengals (-3.5) vs. Giants
The Bengals' defense isn't good enough to contend for the AFC South title as previously expected, but that doesn't mean they're bad enough to have a close game with the Giants.
Daniel Jones vs. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase vs. the bad Giants secondary.
Sure, the Giants' pass rush is one of the best in football, but Big Blue can't run with these cats.
The Bengals won by a touchdown.
Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Bears
The Bears have the seventh-best defense in the league according to DVOA (Adjusted Defensive Value Above Average), while Jacksonville's defense ranks a dismal 32nd.
Despite this, the Bears have only been able to win games on defense, so we don't expect Trevor Lawrence to fold so easily.
Lawrence is clearly the “A-side” of this quarterback matchup, and I'm intrigued by their run game.
Ravens (-6.5) vs. Commanders
The Commanders are scoring on 63% of their drives. The only team to ever accomplish that was the 2000 Rams.
This is the same command team that should have lost to the Giants earlier this season.
Will Washington suddenly become the new Greatest Show on the Turf? I don't bet.
Texans (-7) vs. Patriots
Drake Maye will make his first start against the best defense.
Dannel Hunter (10) and Will Anderson Jr. (13) are the only pass-rush duo in the NFL to rank in the top 15 in winning percentage.
This spells disaster for one of the league's worst offensive lines.
Don't be surprised if Jacoby Brissett is here again.
Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Saints
The Saints have a short week left and will face a Buccaneers team that just got its butt kicked by Kansas City and has 10 days to prepare.
New Orleans will start Spencer Rattler, so the Buccaneers obviously have the advantage here. Back up Baker Mayfield and maybe sprinkle in Bucky Irvin to lead the team to victory.
Browns (+9.5) vs. Eagles
With any luck, the Browns will bench Deshaun Watson for the duration of the game.
Frankly, he's the only reason they're losing games right now.
The Browns still have the sixth-best defense, according to PFF.
As I mentioned last week, since 2003, the big losers after a big loss are 334-248-13.
The data suggests the Browns are a gamble, and you can't trust the Eagles to cover big numbers at this point.
Colts (+2.5) vs. Titans
Anthony Richardson is not a starting quarterback in the pros, but neither is Will Levis.
According to PFF, these two made some dumb decisions on both sides, so all eyes will be on the rest of the roster. According to PFF, the Colts have the highest-rated offensive line and also have a higher-ranked defense, and FTN (For the Numbers) says: The Colts were 19th in DVOA grade, ahead of the Titans at 26th.
Chargers (-3) vs. Broncos
A matchup between Jim Harbaugh and a rookie quarterback could be a disaster for Bo Nix, even if he plays at Mile High.
The Chargers had a week to prepare for a bad quarterback who was getting by with smoke and mirrors and short passes.
It will end someday. According to PFF, Knicks has the third-worst starting quarterback behind Anthony Richardson and Will Revis.
Steelers (-3) vs. Raiders
Things have gotten terrible for Antonio Pierce and the Raiders, and I don't think it's going to get much better this weekend.
Aidan O'Connell will start for Las Vegas, the No. 30 team according to PFF, and the Steelers are the No. 3 team in the league after a crushing loss to the Cowboys.
Pittsburgh's defense wasn't great last week, but Las Vegas should be able to run the ball, which ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per carry (4.9).
Falcons (-6) vs. Panthers
The Falcons are one of the best teams in football, but we haven't realized their talent yet because their defense has struggled.
The offense was phenomenal, especially last week when Kirk Cousins was scorched earth with the Buccaneers.
This line in my model is 7.4 points, so we're getting strong values here.
Cowboys (+3) vs. Lions
It doesn't seem very likely that Micah Parsons will play, but Daron Brand is in full practice as the once great defensive unit looks to be back in shape after suffering an injury.
We saw their run defense look great against the Steelers, and maybe that's a sign of things to come after they really struggled early in the year.
The Cowboys won the game in a game where there were many passes from both teams.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
JETS (+2.5) vs. Bills
We have to win with our new coach in Gang Green.
Will Nathanial Hackett's release from play-calling do any good for the Jets?
Perhaps Rogers can ingest magic mushrooms to become more agile.
Either way, give it a shake.
The Bills have been underperforming over the past three weeks, averaging the 10th fewest yards per play in the NFL.
They've also allowed the ninth-most points in that span, and while the Jets are the worst in the league in yards per play, they've also allowed the fewest points.
Jets win at home, no way to be underdogs
last week: 7-6.
