The Post's Eric Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 7 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Patriots (+6) vs. Jaguars (London)
We all know the Jaguars are a disaster. But did anyone see Drake May last week? I did that.
He looked great in his NFL debut.
The Texans' defense is one of the best in the NFL, but the Jaguars rank 32nd in defensive DVOA (adjusted defensive value above average).
The Patriots win here.
Eagles (-3) vs. Giants
I don't want to set back the road championship favorite too much, but the Eagles have had the Giants' jersey numbers for years, and I don't expect that to change on Sunday.
Malik Nabors' return is an obvious boost, but losing Andrew Thomas is a concern as the offensive line could deteriorate.
Big Blue's offense is not good as it is.
Jets (-2) vs. Steelers
The Jets are looking good even after the loss. The offense should be strong with the addition of Davante Adams, who is still a very good player.
Greg Zuerlein is a big problem, especially in Pittsburgh, where he's tough to get rid of.
It would be nice if they could trust the Jets' kicker, but a weakened Russell Wilson would be fine.
Falcons (-3) vs. Seahawks
Call me biased, but I think the Falcons are one of the best teams in football.
There's plenty of reason to be optimistic, as Atlanta is the seventh-best team in yards per play and the fifth-best team, according to Pro Football Focus.
Seattle has allowed 7.1 yards per play over the past three games. I look forward to seeing the Falcons perform.
Titans (+9.5) vs. Bills
Tennessee's defense doesn't get enough respect here.
The Titans are allowing 4.3 yards per play, the fewest in the NFL.
Buffalo comes into this game just one week after an emotional and — let's be honest — lucky win at MetLife.
It would be foolish to force the issue on Buffalo.
The Titans are going to win this game outright, especially since we've seen a lot of teams led by Josh Allen lay their eggs as heavy favorites.
Browns (+5.5) vs. Bengals
Admittedly, both teams stink, but the Browns' pass defense is solid enough to slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
They boast a pass defense that ranks in the top 10 in passing yards allowed to opponents.
Cincinnati can't really run the ball and win, and the defense (22nd in DVOA) is so bad that Deshaun Watson and post-injury Nick Chubb might look halfway competent.
Texans (+3) vs. Packers
In a coin toss game, I play the better defense.
Houston has the fourth-fewest yards per play in the NFL, while Green Bay ranks 16th.
The Packers' offense is undoubtedly better, allowing 6.2 yards per play (4th), but the Texans aren't bad either at 5.7 (11th).
All things considered, the Texans should thrive here considering they have the better quarterback.
Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Colts
No, Jonathan Taylor is expected to return to the Colts and Devon Ashene is expected to return to Miami.
That's good news for the Dolphins, who have been preparing for this game all week.
Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson is expected to return to the starting lineup for reasons unknown.
According to PFF, he's the second-worst QB among all starters.
Lions (+1.5) vs. Vikings
Consider what this line would look like in the preseason. Come on, take a look.
In Week 1, the Vikings were the favorites to win by one point over the Giants.
Now they are 1.5 point favorites against one of the NFC's Super Bowl favorites?
There is no chance of betting on Sam Darnold this week.
Detroit won this game without Aidan Hutchinson.
Raider on RAMS (+7)
With or without Cooper Kupp, the Rams shouldn't be a seven-point favorite against anyone at this point.
Their defense is allowing a league-worst 6.2 yards per play, and their offense (5.1 yards per play, 19th) isn't good enough to make up for it.
Nothing has changed for the Rams. 7 points is too many.
Washington (-8) vs. Panthers
The Panthers received an initial boost by adding Andy Dalton to the lineup in place of Bryce Young, but there's only so much time a jolt of energy can cover up poor personnel decisions.
Apparently the commander has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Jaden Daniels.
He should be able to help Washington dominate this game and cover a lot of ground.
Chiefs (+1.5) vs. 49ERS
The Chiefs can't lose against any team in the NFL unless they have a really good defense.
Eventually, Patrick Mahomes will come to you.
The 49ers' defense is no longer as dominant as it once was, allowing just 5.4 yards per play, 17th worst in the NFL.
To be fair, these are two great teams, but Mahomes has only lost as an underdog three times in his NFL career, and I doubt this will be the fourth.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Ravens
Tampa Bay is a great team.
This line implies that the Buccaneers are losing on the road by 6.5 points.
That doesn't seem accurate.
Baltimore's defense isn't really good either, allowing 5.6 yards per play, which ranks in the bottom 10.
Why can't Baker Mayfield break through this defense? They can and should win this game.
Chargers (-2.5) vs. Cardinals
Arizona will likely be without Marvin Harrison Jr., which will make things even worse for a team that ranks 23rd in the league in DVOA.
Jim Harbaugh's team, on the other hand, is the No. 3 DVOA team, so based on that metric alone, this line is way off.
The Chargers are good all around and should be able to win easily.
last week: 10-3
season: 40-45-1.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
