What is a fair and appropriate sample size when evaluating NFL quarterback performance?
Where do the seven games fit into that analytical formula?
Through seven games this season, the Jets are 2-5 with Aaron Rodgers at QB.
Through seven games last season, the Jets went 4-3 with Zach Wilson at QB.
do you remember him?
The Jets had a chaotic and dysfunctional quarterback revolving door last year, with Wilson ineffective from the starting lineup, then benched with an injury, even though three other journeyman backups also played in games. Regardless, they finished with 7 wins and 10 losses.
Remember when we (myself at the front of the line) wondered out loud? Just imagine how much better the Jets would be if they had a talented NFL quarterback.
Well, here we are with Rodgers, a former Super Bowl champion, four-time league MVP, and near-Hall of Fame inductee. More than capable.
Adding Rodgers would improve this team to 10-7 at best, with a talented defense and skilled position players on offense.
That was the general belief. However, popular belief does not always correspond to reality.
Through seven games last season, Zach Wilson Jets scored 126 points. Through seven games this season, Aaron Rodgers Jets has scored 128 points.
Rodgers has thrown seven interceptions in seven games. In 15 full seasons as a starter, Rodgers threw seven interceptions or fewer 10 times. He has thrown double-digit interceptions just three times this season, which is the direction he is currently headed.
Of course, these interceptions aren't all Rodgers' fault. Case in point: A third-quarter pick on Pittsburgh cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. was entirely receiver Garrett Wilson's fault, as the ball bounced off his chest and fell into Bishop's arms.
Still, I can hear the voice in my head of Bill Parcells' oft-used phrase, “You are who the record says you are.”
We also hear a simple measure of how Parcells judges quarterbacks. “How often can they get teams in the end zone?”
It's no coincidence that the Jets' offense has produced just 16 second-half points in their last four games, all of which they've lost.
Perhaps it's an inevitable reaction, and maybe it's just recency bias that makes you wonder if the 40-year-old Rodgers still has it in the wake of Sunday night's 37-15 loss to the Steelers.
But it certainly doesn't look like that at the moment.
He doesn't seem to have much confidence in his pocket and appears reluctant to run, but that weapon has been used very effectively and timely throughout his career.
Several times on Sunday night, when Rodgers created big chances for positive yards, he stayed behind the line of scrimmage as if protected by one of those invisible dog fences. Ta.
Rodgers also rarely threw the ball downfield this season, with the exception of a Hail Mary against Buffalo two games ago.
I wondered as I drove back to my hotel in Pittsburgh early Tuesday morning after the Jets loss. There's been a lot of buzz surrounding Rodgers' return to the field this season, but are his teammates taking for granted that everything will be fine now? Is he healthy and playing?
Asked how he could maintain the team's “faith” after the loss in Pittsburgh, Rodgers said, “No. 1, stop listening to you guys (reporters).”
He didn't explain exactly what he meant, and it sounded like one of the standard rants players use to criticize the media.
But part of what Rodgers was trying to say is not to get caught up in all the stuff that's been written about how well his teammates should get along with him and the other talented players on the team as a quarterback. I wonder if that was the case. That may be a trap of human nature that the Jets fell into.
“The human nature around here is we have a Hall of Fame quarterback behind us, so if the defense plays as well as we can and gives Aaron a little bit of a chance, we're in the game. We’re going to win,” lineman Solomon Thomas said Monday. “But…it's not basketball. [where] One player can take over the game. Everyone has to do it. That should be the standard. In order to get where we want to go, that has to be the way we move forward. ”
“Adding Aaron Rodgers to our team definitely raises the expectation level, given everything he's done in this league and everything he can still do,” interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich acknowledged Monday.
Ulbrich said he “spoke” to his team about that Monday morning.
“You can't blame everything on him,” center Joe Tippman said Monday. “That's something we've been talking about for a long time. If we can't get that done on the O-line, he won't be able to go out and do what he's good at.”
The Jets, who face the rebuilding and struggling Patriots on Sunday and have a loose schedule going forward, don't need to be great right now.
They simply need to find a way to be a good person. And it starts with the quarterback.
