CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that the 2024 election is the “historically closest” presidential election in more than 50 years.
Final poll numbers show that if the current leader wins the election, he will likely win 276 electoral votes, just six votes more than the 270 needed to become the next president, Enten said. . In previous close elections, as many as 281 electors were drawn in 2000 and 296 electors were drawn in 2004, making the 2024 election the “closest” since at least 1972.
“I looked at the final polls and basically calculated what the electoral map would look like and how high up the electoral totals the leading candidates would be,” Enten said. “And what we're essentially looking at is, based on the current polling, the total number of electoral votes for the leader is 276. If you go back and look at the closest year since 1972. Of course, back in 2000, a historically close race, the poll leader had only 281 electoral votes at the end of the campaign. [former Democratic nominee Al] Mr. Gore remained on the final ballot in that race. ”
“Going back to 2004, [former President] George W. Bush had 296 electoral votes, so based on current polling, we're going into the election with the closest Electoral College poll we've had in at least 50 years.” Mr. Enten continued.
To win, Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win at least three of the four battleground states, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Enten said. With Republican candidate Donald Trump leading by less than 1 point in North Carolina and Harris leading by less than 1 point in the Great Lakes states, either candidate could easily win by a narrow margin. (Related: 'Good news for Donald Trump': CNN's Harry Enten says Trump's performance in battleground states is 'significantly improved')
“Basically, the four states that are likely to decide this outcome are all within one point of each other,” Enten said. “And what do you get when you tell that to the Electoral College? This is exactly what you get: Harris carries the Great Lakes battleground states, so she has 276 electoral votes, right? But let's say the polls aren't accurate. What do we get if we flip Pennsylvania? Trump gains 281 electoral votes. It doesn't look that far off at this point, with the race in Pennsylvania within one point.”
Enten added that this is the first time since 1972 that the final polls before a presidential election have shown such close results in battleground states.
Trump is close take the lead Harris leads by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania; lead 0.5 point difference in Wisconsin; michigan According to a FiveThirtyEight poll, the difference was 0.3 points. The former president's vote share was 0.8 points. lead 1.5 points in North Carolina lead In Georgia.
Enten said on his Oct. 14 show that Harris' average score in the Great Lakes battleground states is significantly lower than President Joe Biden's 8-point lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020. As of Friday, Mr. Trump was leading in every battleground state, with an overall lead of 0.8 points, according to the RealClear polling average.
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