Republicans believe they can win New Mexico for the first time in 20 years, and conservative advocacy groups are spending millions on Spanish-language commercials in the final two weeks of the campaign.
“New Mexico is a dark horse in this election,” Jay McCleskey, a longtime Republican political strategist in the state, told the Post. “New Mexico hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, but Trump could change that.”
According to people familiar with the matter, groups such as conservative advocacy group Election Freedom and RFK Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again PAC are ramping up advertising efforts in preparation for the final push.
Election Freedom's $5 million ad blitz focused primarily on how Kamala Harris and New Mexico Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich have fueled inflation and allowed a surge in illegal immigration as crime rises. It will be paid for Spanish-language ads that highlight two issues that New Mexico voters overwhelmingly say they care about.
“President Trump has strong penetration among Hispanic voters and actually leads among Hispanic men in multiple internal polls,” McCleskey said.
In New Mexico (a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020), Harris' approval rating is up just 3 points, with another 3% of the population still undecided, according to a KAConsulting poll. is the answer.
Meanwhile, an internal opinion poll conducted by the Trump campaign revealed that the race is close, with support from RFK Jr., according to people involved.
RFK Jr., who polled at 8% in New Mexico before endorsing Trump in August, has moved some of his supporters to the right, which has helped tip the state in his favor. added the source.
Mr. Kennedy, who is currently touting the slogan “A vote for Trump is a vote for Kennedy” in his campaign materials, has also increased advertising spending in the state in recent weeks.
President Trump's approval rating among Latino voters has jumped to 40% this year, more than double the 19% he won among Latino voters in 2016. Meanwhile, 47% of New Mexico's voters are Hispanic, and support is rising in the so-called “Land of Enchantment.” Voters across the Southwest border states are experiencing a transformation due to a dramatic change in the polls.
Catalina Miranda, a 26-year-old who works in the auto industry with her family in the Tucson, Arizona, border town of Nogales, said she was voting for Trump because “many of the Republican values align with Mexican values.” spoke.
Erica Moreno, a mother and small online furniture store owner in El Paso, Texas, also said she would vote for Trump in November. An immigrant who came to the United States from Mexico 24 years ago, she is fed up with the Biden-Harris administration's response to the countless undocumented immigrants who have filled the city's downtown streets and turned them into dangerous places for local customers.
“People are mad at her [Harris] They're here because there are people sleeping on the streets and people who don't want to come to the stores to shop because they're afraid of being assaulted. Our taxes pay for immigrants to live in hotels,” Moreno said. “If Harris couldn't be a good border czar, how could he lead the entire country?”
In 2024, New Mexico had the highest violent crime rate of any U.S. state, with 781 incidents per 100,000 people, more than double the national average.
“Biden won easily in 2020 because he ran as a centrist, but once Harris is exposed as a far-left candidate, voters will sway,” McCleskey added.
“New Mexico is blue, but it's not liberal or progressive, especially when it comes to borders and crime,” he added. “Albuquerque [the most populous city in the state] Voters in particular are paying attention to crime. ”
Additional reporting by Joseph Treviño
