Republicans are growing bullish about their chances of winning Maine, which could boost Donald Trump in the presidential race and help Austin Theriault flip a House seat held by Democrats since 2019. It could be helpful and could undermine Democrats' hopes of controlling the chamber.
Trump, who won the 2nd Congressional District in 2020, increased his lead over Kamala Harris in the district by two points in polls conducted in July and early October, according to information from inside the National Republican Congress. The difference was 9 points, 50% to 41%. The commission's poll was released Wednesday,
Former presidents have benefited from later voters following their lead. A summer poll found 14% were either undecided or leaning toward another option, but the latest poll found just 8% were undecided.
Harris leads in most statewide polls, but given that polls in battleground states have been close this season, with 93 votes at stake in seven battleground districts, the election One person's vote can make a difference.
Maine is one of only two states, along with Nebraska, without a winner-take-all electoral system. Two votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and one vote each to the party winning the two congressional districts.
As the campaign draws to a close, Theriault, a Republican, is becoming a better-known commodity in the second party, helping incumbent Jared Golden turn around a race that at one point seemed deadlocked. There is. blue dog democrats He is closer to outgoing West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin than Harris and her troops.
Why did the race go from 50% to 40% favoring the incumbent to 47% to 45%?
His approval ratings are high online, with 72% of voters knowing who the Republican stock car race driver is, nearly double the 39% in July.
Another reason for Republicans' optimism is that their attacks on Golden have hit home, hurting numbers among Republican voters who might be more responsive to moderate messages. In July, the incumbent's approval rating with the Republican Party was just -13 (33% to 46%). Golden is currently -47 (20% to 67%).
That gives Theriault a healthy +71 approval rating among registered Republicans, compared to 12% for Golden.
Among independents, he is tied with Golden. Each received 43% support, with 15% undecided. Incumbents are up 31% from 52% in July, and 17% are undecided, meaning the messaging is working beyond the Republican base.
And since July, Democrats have also made moves, albeit by a much smaller margin, as Mr. Golden's 89%-5% lead among his party has narrowed to 84%-8%.
The NRCC notes that Golden's flip-flops on gun control and other issues have led to an onslaught of untimely “negative news.” 26% of voters say they have heard good things about him, while 43% say they don't.
Will this be enough to flip seats in a closely contested Congress? That's the unanswered question with 13 days left.
