The Democratic political class can't believe they could lose to Donald Trump again. “How could anyone vote for that guy?” they complain. “He's absolutely gorgeous!”
In a sense, they have a point. Trump is gauche. His recent remarks about Arnold Palmer are the latest in a long line of cryptic statements and improvisations. But mixed in with the strangeness is a clever campaign.
Trump's mcdonald's stunt This was a very astute move (not genius, but pretty good for a standard political stunt). And, of course, the Democratic Party has tilted (again) because of how unclassy and cheap President Trump has been.
Democratic Party elites are so appalled by Trump that they can't bring themselves to give him any credit. But the fact is, unlike Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, the former president has a better instinct for self-promotion. Trump's delay, delay, delay The legal strategy paid off. Trump has a problem environment on his side. And Trump is now Favorite to win.
Essentially, the Democratic Party's biggest problem is that its insularity is far worse than that of the Republican Party. Yes, both parties live in their own ideological media bubbles. But things are even worse for Democrats. Within their bubble, denial reigned supreme as they pursued their own pursuits. hobby horse.
Instead of addressing the concerns of voters, the Democratic political class and their friends in the establishment media continue to focus on President Trump's policies. threat to democracyhis strange action and own position as a victim. In short, Democrats are working on issues that voters care about, not issues they care about. Harris' campaign has become comfort food for an anxious and bewildered political class.
None of this is news. The people are well aware of Mr. Trump's strangeness and decline. the public knows what happened January 6th And I don't approve. Trump being Trump is what held him back. But it still has its limits.
For the past two years, voters have been telling Democrats: Inflation is their biggest concern. President Biden and the Democratic political class are clearly ignoring them. Recently YouGov In the poll, 96% of respondents said inflation was “very” or “somewhat” important. in October 2023 It was 95 percent. October 2022 It was 95 percent. Inflation was by far the top issue in each survey.
Voters also did not want Biden to run again. In October 2022, only 21 percent of voters And only 10% of independents wanted Biden to return to the polls. One year later, that number is 27 percent and 16 percent, each. by April 2024around the time YouGov stopped asking questions, Democrats made some pushback against Biden, raising his approval rating to 30 percent. However, independents remain opposed to Biden's candidacy, with 70% against and 16% in favor.
All the while, Biden was suffering. very negative approval ratingand a majority thought the country was on the wrong path.
However, the Biden administration and the Democratic Party's political establishment ignored the people. There was no special committee on inflation. There are no proposals to curb fiscal expansion or roll back regulations (both of which contribute to inflation). To make matters worse, Democrats kept the crowd close to their erratic leader, until he debating fiasco Although his candidacy was no longer possible, establishment forces still wanted him to remain on the ballot.
Instead, the Democratic political class was, and still is, focused on form and style over substance. Nothing is their fault. Everyone who supports Trump is delusional. part of the cult Or just a fool. A case in point is a recent editorial. washington post savage Elon Musk for his relatively recent decision to get involved in politics.
Musk helped develop one of the world's most successful online payment systems. He turned niche automaker Tesla into the world's leading electric car company and saved America's space program with SpaceX. But he is now condemned. Musk's spending on Trump is bad, but George Soros is made a fortune through gambling That's a good thing in international currency markets. No matter how good you are, if you support Trump, you suck.
For millions of Americans, high inflation means they can't pay rent, can't afford a home, have less savings, and postpone retirement. These are real and difficult challenges that individuals and families must face every day. However, under the Trump administration, inflation was lowhousing is more affordable and real household income was rising.
For the majority of Americans, voting for economic interests means voting for Trump. For those who can't afford just the form, it's the content that matters.
Insularity breeds arrogance, which exacerbates the Democratic Party's problems. By isolating themselves from opposing voices and political realities, they convinced themselves that they could not lose to Trump again. The result has been bad policies and political decisions. Two mistakes stand out. EPA Vehicle Emissions Regulations Tim Walz was chosen as Kamala Harris' running mate.
A new EPA rule announced in March would drastically reduce the number of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2032. The decision effectively spells the end for thousands of auto jobs, especially in the Midwest, including the battleground state of Michigan.
Of all the times they've been tough on American autoworkers, could Team Biden have chosen worse? what were they thinking?
President Trump is currently strictly pursuing this issue. attack UAW leadership supported Kamala Harris. And it's affecting President Trump as well. rise to the top In recent opinion polls.
Harris turned overconfident at the Democratic National Convention. Harris believes she has the momentum to win in August, amid growing relief in the polls. So she ignored both the continued tough polls and the still-poor issue environment.
Instead of choosing Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), who has won three statewide elections by wide margins, as her running mate, Harris faces coordinated attacks against Shapiro. However, it was deemed insufficient and withdrew. against school choice And again support israel. (What do you think? that workout?)
It turns out that her last-minute redirection to Waltz was a complete failure. I often trip over stumps and can't even grab them. his own family To vote for him. Mr. Walz may energize a state that hasn't voted Republican since Richard Nixon, but he will do nothing in Pennsylvania, a state the Minnesota governor must win.
Although there aren't many additions to the running mate, if the state could swing just 0.6% of the vote from Trump to Harris in Pennsylvania, it would have been worth choosing the popular Shapiro. That's because the difference is bigger than Biden's in 2020.
After all, 2024 will be teetering toward the finish line with two races featuring mediocre candidates who refuse to listen to voters. But if Kamala Harris and the Democrats lose, they have only themselves to blame.
keith nortonHe is a co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.
