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It's finally Friday! What a week it's been. I hope you all find a way to relax this weekend. I'm also thinking about decorating for the holiday season. I know it's early, but Thanksgiving is late this year. This edition includes:
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The Trump administration is beginning to take shape.
- DDHQ estimates Republicans have a 93% chance of retaining the House.
- What did the exit polls tell us?
- A counterattack from the Trump administration's culture war is expected.
- Reese's sells giant deconstructed peanut butter cups.
I kate martell A quick summary of this morning and what's to come. Send tips, explanations, feedback, and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you?Sign up here.
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🔀 Post-election movements
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Come January, president-elect trumpHe will return to the White House. Republicans are likely to take the gavel in the Senate and maintain their majority in the House.
The first piece of the migration puzzle: President Trump has made his first selection for the White House. His campaign manager Susie Wildswill serve as chief of staff. Wiles is widely respected as a Republican operative from Florida. she worked for the republican party That's especially true for senators across the political spectrum. mitt romney(Utah) 2012 presidential candidate and senator. rick scott(Florida) 2010 gubernatorial election. Read more about Wilds
his next step : Looking for candidates to serve in his administration. The Hills Brett SamuelsIt has been reported that the transition team has already begun vetting candidates. some names are mixed up :
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk They probably have no formal role, but they may have influence over the government.
- former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It could potentially oversee some form of health and food regulation.
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President Trump Advisor stephen miller He served as a senior adviser in the first Trump administration and may do so again. He is the architect of some of President Trump's immigration policies.
- marco rubio (R-Florida) is a possible candidate for Secretary of State.
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governor of north dakota Doug Burgum (R) could become Secretary of Energy.
- bill hagerty (R-Tenn.) could lead the departments of State, Treasury, and Commerce.
- Former National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien President Trump may nominate him as Secretary of State.
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mike waltz (R-Fla.) could lead the Department of Defense or Veterans Affairs.
- Trump's allies Richard Grenell He could be a candidate for the State Department.
- hedge fund managerJohn Paulson He may become a nominee for the Ministry of Finance.
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Eric Schmidt(R-Missouri) could serve as attorney general.
More notable names
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➤ What Trump's victory means:
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For the US military: “The plan includes controversial culture war issues, cutting wasteful defense spending, and reducing the number of generals in the military, but also strengthens nuclear strategy, China's priorities, and a resilient military.” It also includes less divisive measures, such as establishing athe hill)
for government funding: If Republicans win the trifecta, they will have to decide whether to complete their annual fundraising operation this year or postpone the December fundraising deadline until next year when President Trump takes office. The latter would give Republicans more control over how they fund the government, but would add even more length to an already long to-do list heading into early 2025. ( the hill)
for the national debt: That's unclear. But a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that a majority of Americans expect the national debt to rise under the Trump administration.
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➤ What’s next for Kamala Harris?:
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➤ Details about what to expect:
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- “What President Trump's second term means for your money”: new york times
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“Federal employees brace for layoffs and forced relocations in President Trump's second term'': washington post
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“President Trump arrives just as the Fed is shifting its focus.”: wall street journal
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📊 Election results and analysis
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What did the exit polls tell us? :
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Both parties are studying the exit polls to see what kind of results they expect. president-elect trump won very decisively, vice president harrisI lost it. The Hills Nile Stanage Analyze 5 key points:
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Latino man approaches President Trump in a big way
- The abortion rights wave never materialized for Harris.
- The youth vote shifted several notches to the right.
- Different contexts of black male voting
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Jewish voters stick with the Democratic Party
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➤ Further election analysis:
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“How Trump Won and Harris Lost.”: “He made an important bet that his discontent would become the discontent of the MAGA movement, and the Republican Party, and more than half the country. It paid off.” new york times
“One notable pattern hidden in the election results”: “Did voters reject the Democratic Party or just the Biden-Harris administration?” vox
“How will the county change in the 2024 presidential election?”: washington post
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What's going on in the house? :
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Control of the House has not yet been decided, but it is increasingly likely that Republicans will retain control.
As of this morning:Republicans won 216 seats and Democrats won 204 seats. 218 is the magic number needed to win a majority. A total of 15 races are yet to be called.
Of the remaining races: Democrats lead in nine of the uncalled races. Republicans are in the lead in the other six parties. The uncalled races are in California, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. 📝 Here is a list of unnamed races:
The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ) projects that Republicans have a 93% chance of retaining their majority.
📹 Watch DDHQ's Scott Tranter explain Why are those races still too close to call?
📊 complete election results
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Democrats are licking their wounds:
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“Democrats say we need a fresh start after the election.” president-elect trumpdecisive victory over vice president harris As a result, he won swing states, narrowed the Democratic lead in various blue states, and won over important segments of the electorate,” The Hills said. amy parnesI will report.
What Democrats Think They Got Wrong: “Strategists and operatives say the Harris campaign is relying too much on old strategies that won't work in 2024. It's too reliant on data and its ground game. That message is ineffective. And using surrogates like Beyoncé and Bruce Springsteen as a crutch has backfired by making the Democratic Party look like a party of elites.”
read more: “Trump's victory will force Democrats to debate how to start over.”
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A battle for leadership of the Republican Party erupts:
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Republicans are celebrating their victory, but the celebration quickly turns into a fight over who will replace the outgoing Senate Republican leader.Mitch McConnell(key).
Which senator would want the job?: Senate Republican WhipJohn Tune(SD), Senator.John Cornyn(R-Texas) and Sen.rick scott(R-Florida) Everybody wears a hat in the ring.
Thune wants President Trump to stay out of the picture.: Thune has urged President Trump to give Republican senators the freedom to choose their own leaders.
^ This gives his rivals an idea: Thune is worried that Trump won't support him as Senate leader. Keep in mind that Cornyn and Scott have a better relationship with Trump than Thune.
Cornyn is enthusiastically participating in today's party.: He announced this morning that he has raised nearly $33 million during the 2024 campaign to support Republican candidates.
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“Sen.Tim Scott(RS.C.) on Friday formally announced his candidacy for the chairmanship of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), giving him the ability to maintain his party's incoming majority and possibly expand the party's majority. He will take command of medium-term initiatives. ”The Hills al weaver.
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☕ celebrate:Today is National Cappuccino Day!
😭 I tear up thinking about the fact that something like this happened at the Spirit Airlines counter.:Raccoon fell from the ceiling tile At the Spirit Airlines counter at LaGuardia Airport. The video is wild. 📹 Watch video
🥜 please catch me : Reese's has launched a deconstructed peanut butter cup kit that includes 10 ounces of peanut butter and a giant milk chocolate shell. (USA Today)
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The House and Senate are absent. president biden andvice president harrisI'm in Washington. It's a quiet day. (always eastern)
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3:50pm:Biden leaves for Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.
- 11-22: of yearly United Nations Climate Change Conference “COP29”.
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I'm sure it will make you smile. look at this And I try to remain expressionless. 😉
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Send Radar comments, story ideas and events to cmartel@thehill.com. Could a friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.
Check out past issues of the 12:30 Report here and other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!
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