Sunday night will see two of the top AFC playoff contenders square off as Joe Burrow's Bengals visit Justin Herbert's Chargers.
Burrow and Herbert were drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft, and Burrow won the only preliminary matchup between the 2021 QBs.
The Chargers are favored by 1.5 points at home, and the over/under is set at 47.5 points, so we expect them to score at SoFi Stadium.
There are two picks in this game, including one team total and one player prop.
Let's take a closer look at the data and see where the advantage lies in what should be a thrilling primetime matchup.
Bengals 23.5 points or more (-115, DraftKings)
Burrow is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season if not for the Bengals' 4-6 record.
He is tied for the league lead with 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions, and ranks second in the combined EPA+CPOE metric behind MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.
Ja'Marr Chase, the top Offensive Player of the Year candidate, leads the NFL with 981 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Chargers boast the fifth-best pass defense DVOA this year, but face the easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
I have a lot of respect for first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, but I'm not completely sold on this group.
Los Angeles ranks just 29th in pressure rate, but Burrow has been lights out from the clean pocket all year.
Cincinnati will have star wide receiver Tee Higgins back in the lineup, but left tackle Orlando Brown's status remains in question.
Whether Brown plays or not, I expect the Bengals offense, which ranks No. 5 in EPA, to be successful against a Chargers defense that hasn't seen this level of opposition all year.
JK Dobbins under 57.5 yards (-110, bet 365)
One of the best stories of the early season, Dobbins is a top candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, in part because of a previous lower-body injury.
Unfortunately, he has started to slow down in recent weeks.
Since Week 3, he's only ranked 26th out of 28 qualifying running backs with a YPC rate of 3.54 and 25th in explosive rush rate with a 2.6 percent.
The Bengals' run defense was exploited for much of the season, ranking just 31st in run defense success rate on the year, but has been much better in recent weeks thanks to improved health up front.
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Since Week 5, Cincinnati has held opponents to the fifth-lowest explosive rushing rate and the 12th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Gus Edwards returned to the lineup last week and immediately racked up 10 carries.
The Chargers will likely use Edwards more often to keep Dobbins healthy.
You can also see more of the Chargers' pass-heavy game script here.
Since their Week 5 bye, they rank third in neutral pass play percentage, and with the Bengals expected to keep scoring, the Chargers will need to open up their offense to keep up the pace. There may be.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
