OAN Staff Avril Elfie
2:36 PM – Sunday, November 17, 2024
Pollster J. Ann Selzer, who predicted Kamala Harris would win Iowa, was so wrong that she retired.
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On Sunday, Selzer announced his resignation in a guest op-ed. des moines register He said he plans to move on to “other businesses and opportunities.”
“Would we have wanted to make this announcement after the final vote on Election Day? Of course. It's ironic that it's quite the opposite,” Seltzer wrote.
On the Saturday before Election Day, Selzer Des Moines Register/Mediacom An Iowa poll predicted Vice President Kamala Harris would lead President-elect Donald Trump by three points in the state's six electoral votes.
This prediction was a seven-point shift in favor of Harris from the same poll a month earlier and was off by 16 points from the actual election result.
The poll then began to spark hopes among Democrats that Harris could win Iowa, even though Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020.
Iowa, once considered a swing state, is now red and has not voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012.
Ms. Seltzer doubled down on X that her resignation was not due to a missed vote.
“Oh, 'retirement' is an inaccurate term. It has been my long-standing plan that this election would be my last job of this kind. Other work continues,” she said.
she too issued a statement There, she revealed her post-mortem evaluation of the incorrect opinion poll.
“Since election night, I have considered possible explanations for the dramatic differences between the final Des Moines Register and Mediacom Iowa polls conducted by my firm,” Selzer wrote in the report. is written in. “To cut to the chase, I couldn't find anything that explained the mistake.”
She concluded that her poll failed to capture the shift in people of color to the next president, as 84% of poll respondents were white.
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