Luis Severino has stayed healthy, but can the Mets rely on last season's results to extend their relationship for the next four or five years?
The right-hander on Tuesday rejected the club's qualifying offer worth $21.05 million next season, making it clear Severino's return to Queens would be on a multi-year deal.
Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea also rejected qualifying offers from the Mets, who will receive draft pick compensation if any players sign elsewhere.
Alonso and Manaea were all but guaranteed to reject qualifying offers from the start, but given that the 30-year-old Severino could accept a salary higher than his market value in 2025 and be worth it. It may have been less certain. He will sign a multi-year contract next offseason.
Still, Severino (considered within the industry as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter on a playoff-level team) will likely receive at least four years on his next contract and is open to qualifying offers. The risks would have been considerable. An injury-plagued season will likely reduce his value as a free agent next winter.
The top end of this starting pitcher market includes Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried. The next tier includes Manaea and Severino, who gave the Mets an incredible 1-2 punch last season.
Severino, who arrived on a one-year deal worth $13 million, started 31 games for the Mets, posting a 3.91 ERA and 161 strikeouts in 182 innings. It was the first time since 2018 with the Yankees that Severino was healthy enough to start at least 30 games.
“I have to give a lot of credit to the Mets, the trainers, the strength coaches and everyone who helped me here,” Severino said last month. “I have been healthy this year, but I feel like I can still grow.”
Severino's fastball velocity averaged 95.9 mph, ranking him in the 79th percentile of MLB, according to Statcast. His numbers were also good in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and ground ball rate, among others.
The Mets' returning starting pitchers for next season include Kodai Chiga, David Peterson, and Tyler Megill. Another possibility is that Paul Blackburn may miss the start of spring training as he is rehabbing from surgery to repair a cerebrospinal fluid leak, and the Mets could sign him. Please make a decision.
Team officials could look in various directions to fill the vacant spot, with familiar names Severino, Manaea and Jose Quintana among the available talent.
“Pitching staff can be developed in a variety of ways,” President of Baseball Operations David Stearns said at a recent GM meeting. “We can do that by adding starting pitchers and going for length early in the game. Next year we can change the structure of the bullpen a little bit to have more multi-inning options that can get through innings. But certainly We need to find some innings and some of that will be in the starting rotation.”
Severino pitched at least six innings in 20 of his 31 starts and improved in that regard in the second half of the season.
“I want to compete,” Severino said. “I want to be on a team that wants to win the World Series and give it my all every time I step on the field. I have to keep that in mind.”
