Ohio State is one of three teams tied for the top of the MAC standings with a 5-1 conference record, along with Bowling Green and Miami (Ohio).
But Toledo still has a strong chance to advance to the conference title game with a win on Wednesday.
Ohio vs. Toledo Prediction
Although the Bobcats had one of the worst records in the country, coach Tim Albin led the team to remarkable success, especially on defense.
Ohio State ranks 53rd in overall defensive success rate and is especially good against the run, ranking 23rd in EPA/rush allowed.
Toledo has struggled to establish a ground game this season, ranking 128th in EPA/rush and 105th in early down EPA/play.
If the Rockets can't find success in a hurry, their offense will fall into the arms of Tucker Gleason against a Bobcats pass defense that ranks just 77th in EPA/dropbacks.
The Rockets often rely on passing explosives to create offensive production, and the Bobcats defense will need to cover well here.
It's worth noting that Gleason is still slow to recover from turnovers. He has 14 turnover-worthy plays this year, but only seven interceptions.
Meanwhile, Ohio State's offense relies heavily on running back Anthony Tyus.
Still, it could be tough against a Toledo defense that ranks in the top 25 in EPA/rush allowed and PFF tackle grade.
Even if Parker Navarro is asked to take on a heavier burden as a passer, I don't have much confidence that he can be successful against Toledo's 12th-ranked coverage unit.
Ohio State benefited from the conference's easy schedule, playing four of the bottom five teams in the MAC standings.
Despite Toledo's overall issues, I think the Rockets still have a clear advantage in this game and there is value in developing under field goals.
Recommended: Toledo -1.5 (-110, ESPN BET).
Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan predictions
First-year coach Pete Lembo has done a great job of making Buffalo competitive this season after completely rebuilding on both sides of the ball.
The Bulls are surprisingly 4-2 in conference play and come into this game following an overtime victory over Ball State.
However, they were relatively lucky to win that match. Ball State averaged 7.45 yards per play (86th percentile) to Buffalo's 5.44 yards per play (39th).
The Bulls' offense is limited, ranking outside of the top 110 teams in EPA/passing and pass completion percentage.
CJ Ogbonna is a two-way quarterback with deep ball ability but is inconsistent as a passer.
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I don't believe he can consistently take advantage of a coverage corps that ranks 127th in Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have a solid run defense, ranking in the top 50 in EPA/rushing allowed and PFF tackle grade.
You won't confuse Eastern Michigan's offense with a record-breaking unit, but quarterback Cole Snyder, a transfer from Buffalo, has breathed life into the passing attack.
The Bulls rank just 99th in EPA/passes allowed this season, but I expect Oran Singleton to have a strong game with three straight games of 70+ yards.
I don't think there's much value on the side or overall in this game.
This will likely come down to whether Ogbonna connects on some deep balls.
The expected weather conditions for this game will likely favor the Eagles, who have the better run defense, so keep an eye on the weather forecast. Heavy winds and rain are expected in Ypsilanti on Wednesday.
Recommendation: Lean Eastern Michigan -1 (-110, Fanatics).
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
