If the season ended today, Josh Allen would be the unanimous NFL MVP. But that's not the case. You have seven weeks for other candidates to shine and for gamblers to reveal the value of their bets.
The Buffalo Bills quarterback was the favorite to win at every sportsbook (currently on FanDuel Then +125). Buffalo is currently 9-2, and while other quarterbacks have clearly had weaker cases, Allen has been consistent.
There's no question that Allen is a legitimate favorite to win, but a lot can still happen in the regular season. Processing these permutations and scouring the betting board always comes back to one likely longshot that is more viable than the odds suggest. That's Saquon Barkley at 65-1 (50-1 at other sportsbooks).
The Philadelphia Eagles' weapons lead the NFL in scrimmage yards and rushing yards per game. If Jalen Hurts hadn't hit so many vultures, he would have led in touchdowns. In fact, Barkley was tackled at the 1-yard line before Hurts scored five rushing touchdowns. Give that to Barkley and he can be at the top of the NFL. More importantly, Berkeley has the potential to continue to grow by avoiding the volatile outcomes expected to result in setbacks.
Barkley's biggest obstacle is his position. The quarterback has won the award 11 years in a row, winning MVP each season and leading the top two seeds in both conferences while also posting impressive results. But what if this year's top seed doesn't produce a quarterback that fits the traditional profile?
There's no doubt Allen and the Bills will stumble for Barkley, but as we all know, the NFL season can go downhill at any time. Patrick Mahomes (12/1 odds) and the Chiefs are 9-1, but his performance is no mean feat, not to mention his league-high 11 interceptions.
In the NFC, the 9-1 Detroit Lions' Jared Goff (+800 odds) is a far cry from Allen's talent and value, but he's part of the conversation by default at his position. But he could easily have a high interception game again, or else voters might agree with me and attribute the team's success and most of the stats to his strong supporting cast. No. Hurts (odds 17/1) is in the right spot for Philadelphia at 8-2, but Barkley could certainly rise to the occasion, albeit at the risk of cannibalizing each other's votes.
Barkley and the Eagles have three high-profile games remaining, starting with Sunday night's game against the Los Angeles Rams. They will also travel to Baltimore and host Pittsburgh in the late afternoon TV slot (or change to prime time). Considering the competition in the NFC East is slowly fading, it's possible they could finish 5-2 or 6-1.
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A quarterback's MVP streak won't last forever. Basically, it has to end at some point. Most recently, a wide receiver (DeVonta Smith) won the Heisman Trophy, and now a non-quarterback (Colorado's Travis Hunter) is the overwhelming favorite to win it. So maybe now the NFL is bucking that trend.
Barkley checked all the MVP boxes and passed the smell test thanks to the most memorable play of the season. This is a backwards hurdle that will stay with you for years.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in sports betting, including 11 years as a host, columnist and betting analyst at ESPN. He also grabbed headlines by taking $297,000 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
