NFL Week 12 begins Thursday night with a divisional matchup as the Cleveland Browns take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Weather could be a problem this winter, with rain, snow and wind gusts of up to 32km/h expected.
So when putting together parlays for the same game, it makes sense to consider both teams' run games as part of your decision-making.
All odds provided courtesy of DraftKings.
Steelers vs Browns same game parlay
Najee Harris Rushing Attempts Over 17.5 (-130)
Quarterback Russell Wilson has done a decent job since entering the starting lineup, but the Steelers haven't left him completely alone.
Considering Pittsburgh's pass-play rate is 47.6%, the second-lowest in the league, Harris should continue to get touches, especially considering the weather conditions.
Attacking Cleveland on the ground makes sense, as Cleveland ranks 27th in opponent yards per carry (4.8).
Harris has had over 17.5 rushing attempts over the past four games, and the weather conditions bode well for him to be given a heavy workload.
Jalen Warren 40+ Rushing Yards (+105)
Harris is leading the way for the Steelers, but Warren is sticking to his plan to get a share of the carries.
Warren also has more carries because the Steelers are scheduled for fewer quarterback runs with Wilson than when Justin Fields was under center.
The backup running back has had at least nine carries in each of the last four games.
Pittsburgh's dual rushing attack could wear down the Browns' defense, which gave up 214 yards on the ground in Sunday's game against the Saints.
Finally, Warren has exceeded this number in each of his last five games against an opponent that ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing yards.
ALT total less than 43 points (-264)
After seeing the big swing from 43.5 to 37 on the under, I prefer to add a little insurance by playing another total at 43.
The weather likely had something to do with this move, but it's worth noting that Pittsburgh has a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense.
So if you're targeting play on the under, the Steelers fit the profile of your desired team.
Points can definitely be expensive considering this is a prime time division game.
Steelers money line (-192)
Cleveland somehow lost to New Orleans 35-14 despite having a plus-2 margin on turnovers and gaining 443 total yards.
The Browns' problem was that they continued to struggle on third down, converting just three of their 13 chances.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
What must have been especially frustrating is that New Orleans ranks 22nd in the Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA) metric on FTN Fantasy Defense, so it's not like New Orleans has a huge defense. That's what it means.
Those struggles will likely continue against the Steelers, who rank ninth in opponent third-down conversion rate at 35%.
Live stream the game on Amazon Prime Video on Thursday night
Offensively, the Browns' third-down conversion rate of 28.2% is the worst in the league.
Jameis Winston replaced the injured Deshaun Watson at quarterback and gave the Browns a bit of a boost, but the head coach was firmly on the hot seat and players missed games due to a “business decision.” This team is in turmoil as they have won.
At this point, it's fair to question the Browns' motivation for the remaining games.
Steelers vs. Brown same game parlay pick (+430, draft kings)
- Najee Harris Rushing Attempts Over 17.5 (-130)
- Jalen Warren 40+ Rushing Yards (+105)
- ALT total less than 43 points (-264)
- Steelers money line (-192)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has won money on two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay during his betting career, including eight games in the Little League World Series. Most recently, they accurately selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and Copa America.
