Deion Sanders and the team have had a huge impact this year, but I'm still not satisfied with the Buffaloes.
My biggest problem is that the attack isn't working.
Shedur Sanders is always running for his life, and Colorado ranks 104th in the nation in sacks allowed (8 percent).
More important to this matchup is the Buffaloes' inability to run the ball behind a poor front five. They rank 110th nationally in EPA per rush and 7th in pass play percentage (60%).
That bodes well for Kansas State.
The Jayhawks' undersized front seven is vulnerable to rushing (125th nationally in EPA per rush allowed).
Despite this, the defense has been successful in protecting passes behind the solid cornerback duo of Melo Dotson and Kobe Bryant.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas' offense has been revitalized by Jaron Daniels being healthy.
After an unfortunate losing streak early in the season, the Jayhawks have won three of their last four games, dropping over 40 points against Iowa State and Houston during the period.
Colorado's rushing defense is only average (66th nationally in EPA per rush allowed), and the Jayhawks boast a top-10 rushing offense behind two-way Daniels and star running back Devin Neal. .
This is a good matchup for the up-and-coming Jayhawks, and the Buffaloes seem overrated. Four of the six wins in the Big 12 have come against teams that have lost in league play.
Pick: Kansas +3.
Northwest Michigan (+10.5)
Michigan's passing attack has looked a little better since the Wolverines started facing Davis Warren again.
The senior can complete almost 60% of his passes and tends to not put the ball in danger due to his shallow average target depth.
Still, the Wolverines' aerial attack is one of the worst in college football.
They still rely too heavily on their rushing attack, ranking 27th nationally in rushing play percentage (58%).
This doesn't bode well for Northwestern. Northwestern boasts a formidable secondary, but a talented front seven that ranks in the top 15 nationally in EPA per rush and rush completion percentage.
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We don't know how Northwestern will score, but the Wildcats' defense will be able to stay competitive and play points-at-a-premium in a low-scoring, high-rushing Big Ten battle. It is worth catching more than 10 points.
In fact, only one of Michigan's five wins came by more than 10 points, and since 2005, underdogs on the road with 45 or fewer points in conference play have been held against the spread. They have a record of 374 wins, 294 losses, and 18 losses.
Also, is Michigan looking ahead to next week's rivalry game against Ohio State?
I wouldn't be surprised to see them look unprepared this Saturday at home against a traditionally lame duck Northwestern program.
last week:1-2. Notre Dame (left), Kansas State University (left), and Kansas State (west).
2024 season:20-14.
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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is an avid fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins, and underdog home teams. He was put on the wrong foot in the Miami Miracle in 2018, but redeemed himself four years later by hitting Sandy Alcantara with a 40/1 long shot to win the National League Cy Young Award.
