The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 12 of the NFL season..
Sunday
Raiders (+6) vs. Broncos
Vegas comes up with creative ways to lose. They currently lead the NFL in turnovers, but most of them are just fluke plays that you wouldn't necessarily expect to happen at a certain rate. Last year Josh Allen had the second-most interceptions in the NFL, but this year he's near the bottom of the league. Brock Bowers and the Raiders will keep this game close and could pull off an upset.
Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Giants
Mike Evans returns at a terrible time for Big Blue. The star receiver is a surefire deep threat that opens up rushing lanes from running back Bucky Irving and should already be wide open. Big Blue is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, by far the most in the NFL this year. You can't blame Daniel Jones for that! Tampa Bay ends the week with more than three points as favorites by 1 p.m.
Lions (-7.5) vs. Colts
The Lions are desperate to outscore every opponent they play. Step by step, Anthony Richardson is finally looking like an NFL quarterback against the lowly Jets, but he's probably overrated. The Lions are allowing just 4.2 points per game in the fourth quarter, despite having the highest margin of victory in the NFL. This is the third lowest number in the NFL. Even with a big lead, Detroit won't give up.
Titans (+8) vs. Texans
Can Will Levis stop the turnover nonsense, put his head down and give it his all? That's what makes the Titans not an average team. In fact, his 11 turnovers in seven games have made them a 2-8 Dump Starfire. You can't be an idiot. Nevertheless, turnovers are generally considered fluke plays, and Tennessee's top-ranked run defense (4.1 YPC allowed) did enough to stop Houston's offense and keep this one close. It should work.
Patriots (+7.5) vs. Dolphins
A combination of bad luck kept the Patriots from winning last week against the Rams. Right now, they're still big underdogs against the Dolphins, who have Tyreek Hill dealing with a sore wrist. Miami is going to run wild, but New England's run defense isn't bad enough to take a blowout loss on Sunday.
Cowboys (+10) vs. Commanders
Popular players are running wild in the NFL right now. The double-digit championship favorite is 5-0 against the spread this year, but I don't see a district game in which a rookie quarterback will go undefeated this year. Washington's average margin of victory is 5.9, and its defense is no match for Houston's defense, which hampered Dallas' offense.
Vikings (-3.5) vs. BEARS
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast. He was 7-1 against rookie signal-callers, and his units confounded some of the best in the league. A situation where you can see ghosts was observed. Minnesota is third in QB hits (77) with a 39.3 percent blitz rate. Williams will be surrounded.
Chiefs (-11) vs. Panthers
Only the Panthers are worse than the Giants in run defense allowed by YPC, but Carolina is even worse, ranking 32nd according to DVOA. Cover's roadmap is to take an early lead and charge toward Carolina's defense. Bryce Young and the Chiefs defense will be a tough matchup. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is 12-2 against rookies, dominating young quarterbacks. Young isn't a rookie, but he's just as lost as a rookie. Although the Chiefs suffered a disappointing loss to Buffalo, they had a big win.
Seahawks (-1) vs. Cardinals
Arizona has zero pass rushes and ranks 31st in pass rush win percentage, according to ESPN, so Geno Smith will have a chance to settle in and tear apart the Cardinals' battered secondary alongside the returning DK Metcalf. I think the Cardinals are developing a solid young team, but Seattle's ranking in DVOA should improve significantly with the return of several star players after the bye week.
49ers (+5.5) vs. Packers
Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa did not play for the 49ers, and the line moved from 2 to 5.5. A 3.5 point move is a bit dramatic to me. Brandon Allen hasn't played much since 2022, but he should still be good enough to keep this game close. According to DVOA, San Francisco has a unit that ranks in the top 10 in every respect, so despite the bad times, they're happy to get some points and hope Kyle Shanahan is able to coach Allen well. I hope.
Eagles (-3) vs. RAMS
Philadelphia has the best secondary in the NFL, as evaluated by Pro Football Focus. That will make it a tough sled for aging receiver Cooper Kupp and elite route runner Puka Nacua. The Eagles also have plenty of weapons offensively to take down Los Angeles' below-average defense.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
Ravens (-3) vs. CHARGERS
There was a lot to be concerned about when we saw the Chargers fall apart at the seams against the Bengals. When Baltimore takes an early lead, it usually goes into beatdown mode, which is also a natural expectation for Justin Herbert in prime time. Baltimore allows very few rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (7th best in the NFL), so don't expect heavy leg usage from the Chargers' star signal caller.
last week: 2-11
season: 69-85-1
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
