HALIFAX, Nova Scotia – Ukraine needs money to invest in its own military production industry, not a foreign military, to fight a war with Russia, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur tells The Hill. Ta.
President Biden has lifted restrictions on U.S. military contractors traveling to Ukraine to help maintain and repair equipment, but European leaders are unsure whether they will send troops to Ukraine for training or assistance. They are reportedly debating whether to do so. France has not ruled out sending troops into battle.
But Pevkul said such a move comes even as Ukraine faces manpower shortages and a battle to maintain morale and Russia is sending thousands of North Korean troops to strengthen front-line troops. He said the risks outweigh the benefits.
President Biden has lifted restrictions on U.S. military contractors for maintenance and repairs, and European leaders are reportedly debating whether to send troops to Ukraine for training and assistance. France has not ruled out sending troops into battle.
But Pevkul said such a move comes even as Ukraine faces a shortage of human resources and morale and Russia is sending thousands of North Korean troops to strengthen front-line forces. He said the risks outweigh the benefits.
“As far as I know, the Ukrainians can handle all of this if they can provide everything they need to fight Russia,” Pevkul told The Hill on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum over the weekend.
Nearly three years after a defensive war began, Ukraine is under intense pressure to shore up its potential battlefield gains as a force against Russian President Vladimir Putin by the time President-elect Trump takes office. .
President Trump has promised to end the war quickly and criticized the level of US spending on aid to Ukraine. Although he has not specifically proposed that Ukraine cede land to Russia as part of a peace deal, many Ukraine supporters are concerned about such a scenario.
Pevkul said Ukraine's surprise invasion of Russia's Kursk region in August was a missed opportunity to surge support for Kiev.
“During the Kursk counterattack, there was a great momentum in this war, but at that time the Ukrainian army did not have enough equipment or firepower to advance further,” he said.
“I think this is a missed opportunity for Ukrainians as well as the West. …We have to collectively decide whether we are helping Ukraine fight or helping it win.” So if you want to help them win, you have to take this extra step.”
Pevkul said Ukraine produces six to seven times as many howitzers in a year as, for example, France produces, adding He called for further promotion.
“Their industry is really ramping up production,” he says.
Pevkul said Ukraine's industry has the capacity to produce about $30 billion worth of munitions annually, but only $15 billion can be spent.
“This means that Ukrainian industry has twice the production capacity. So when you can't give anything from your own reserves, give them money, this is a simple message. ”
Europe as a whole has allocated more funds to Ukraine than the United States, but that hasn't stopped President Trump and his allies from demanding more aid from European countries. The Kiel Institute Ukraine Aid Tracker estimates that Europe has spent about $124 billion in aid to Ukraine, while the United States has spent about $89 billion.
Pevkul warned that the next six months of political turmoil in the US and Europe, between the Trump transition and elections in Germany and France, will provide an opportunity for adversaries such as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea to take advantage. did.
“Now is the time for autocrats to make a new push. As we've seen in Ukraine, President Putin is pushing very hard right now.”
He cited wars in the Middle East and Chinese provocations in the south, saying, “There is political turmoil, and in addition to Ukraine, there are other conflicts. Taken together, this means that dictators around the world are looking to take advantage of this momentum.” I can understand that,” he said. China Sea.
Pevkul said Putin's use of an “experimental” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in Ukraine last week was primarily due to Biden's authorization for Ukraine to use Western-provided missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. He said it was a political message. But he said it was also another example of Putin escalating the war.
“Every time something new happens in this war, Russia is the one escalating,” he said.
Still, Pevkul said it is important for Western countries to “keep a cool head. We have to react, but not overreact.”
Estonia is wary of hybrid attacks on its territory by Russia and China.
Russia is suspected of carrying out cyber attacks, destroying undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, sabotage across maritime borders, to name a few such tactics that neighboring countries claim are part of hybrid warfare. and interfering with aviation communications.
“We clearly know what Russia is capable of. It's that Russia is always testing us. That's why preventing this kind of attack and responding to that kind of attack is so important. It’s important,” Pevkul said.
