The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was characterized by an unusual storm development pattern, but despite the damage, the season's activity was below what forecasters expected.
Between June 1 and the end of November, 18 named storms formed across the basin, with 11 strengthening into hurricanes and five strengthening into major cyclones. Eight hurricanes made landfall. Five of them hit the United States.
This number exceeded the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major storms that occur during a typical season.
The first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, did not form until June 19th. This marks the slowest start to hurricane season in a decade. However, the period from mid-September to October helped make up the shortfall.
At the peak of the season, 10 named storms formed, three of which made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast as hurricanes.
Despite being lower than pre-season estimates, the damage was initially estimated at approximately $200 billion, making 2024 the second costliest season on record.
Forecasters miss seasonal activity
The number of cyclones may be impressive, but forecasters expected this year to be even busier.
Colorado State University originally predicted a season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, but revised those numbers upward in its July update.
At the time, forecasters cited record warm water temperatures and evolving La Niña conditions as factors leading to the active season. However, the El Niño Southern Oscillation never transitioned into La Niña during the hurricane season.
But the quieter-than-expected situation wasn't limited to the Atlantic. This situation was observed in all oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, leading many to wonder if climate change is behind the decrease in cyclone activity.
Tropical systems in the Atlantic basin produced the most accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE) compared to normal, while oceans such as the Indian and Pacific oceans showed notable inactivity.
The Atlantic basin reported ACE values more than 34% above typical annual averages, while the Indian Ocean decreased by more than 67% and the Pacific Ocean decreased by at least 37%.
Most of Atlantic's aces came from Hurricanes such as Beryl, Kirk, and Milton, who scored the most points.
Hurricanes Beryl, Helen and Milton set records
Hurricane Beryl, which formed in late June, made history as the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, but was only the second Category 5 hurricane on record to occur in July.
Because the cyclone was relatively small, it avoided harsh conditions and developed rapidly east of the Lesser Antilles.
After impacting several islands and Mexico, it weakened and made landfall along the Texas coastline south of Houston.
At least 3 million power outages were reported in the United States due to the hurricane, and more than 40 people were reported dead.
Hurricane Helen formed in the western Caribbean and made landfall along Florida's Big Bend on September 26th.
Although Helen also became a major hurricane before making landfall, the storm will be remembered for the devastating flooding in the Carolinas.
Rainfall totals exceeded 30 inches in North Carolina, combined with several days of heavy rain that preceded the hurricane.
Many communities in and around Asheville were flooded or completely cut off from first responders.
This cyclone was not only the costliest but also the deadliest of the season, with more than 230 lives lost.
Milton joins Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debbie, Francine, and Helen as the strongest cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico this year.
Milton reached Category 5 on October 7, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph and a pressure of 897 millibars.
Fortunately for Florida's west coast, the hurricane weakened to a Category 3 and made landfall near Sarasota on October 9th.
After the hurricane, a data analysis firm estimated damages at more than $30 billion.
Milton was also the last hurricane to impact the Lower 48 states, ending an active landfall season in the United States.
Forecasters miss seasonal activity
The number of cyclones may be impressive, but forecasters expected this year to be even busier.
Colorado State University originally predicted a season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, but revised those numbers upward in its July update.
At the time, forecasters cited record warm water temperatures and evolving La Niña conditions as factors leading to the active season. However, the El Niño Southern Oscillation never transitioned into La Niña during the hurricane season.
But the quieter-than-expected situation wasn't limited to the Atlantic. This situation has been observed in all oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, leading many to wonder if climate change is behind the decrease in cyclone activity.
Tropical systems in the Atlantic basin produced the most accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE) compared to normal, while oceans such as the Indian and Pacific oceans showed notable inactivity.
The term “ACE” is an index used to measure the overall strength and longevity of tropical storms and hurricanes.
The Atlantic basin reported ACE values more than 34% above typical annual averages, while the Indian Ocean decreased by more than 67% and the Pacific Ocean decreased by at least 37%.
Most of Atlantic's aces came from Hurricanes such as Beryl, Kirk, and Milton, who scored the most points.
Plenty of work to do even in the off-season
Although the Atlantic Basin is out of official hurricane season from December to May, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center will still have a lot of work to do.
Staff will complete an overview of the 18 cyclonic storms in 2024, consider what messages could be improved, and prepare for the World Meteorological Organization's annual hurricane conference in March.
At the 47th meeting of the RA IV Hurricane Committee, countries will share forecasting best practices, consider potential changes to future seasons, and call for the retirement of cyclone names associated with significant loss of life and destruction. It's planned.
In addition to meetings and preparations for the 2025 season, forecasters will closely monitor the Atlantic Basin for offseason developments.
Since record-keeping began in the 1850s, there have been at least 71 storms every month outside of official hurricane season.
May tends to be the busiest off-season with 42 cyclones, followed by December and April.
Forecasters warn that cyclones that form before the official start of hurricane season don't give any clues about how active the next season will be.
The next hurricane season begins June 1, 2025 and runs through November 30, 2025.
