If there's anything we've learned about the Kansas City Chiefs, it's that they can't be trusted as heavy favorites.
That's exactly what they looked like on Black Friday when the Chiefs walked into Arrowhead Stadium as 13-point favorites.
Kansas City was the last NFL team to go undefeated this season and is currently playing a divisional match in prime time.
The Chiefs have been favored by six points or more six times this season and won all of them, but they are 0-5-1 against the spread in those games.
Las Vegas is 2-2 against the spread in its last four games against the Chiefs, winning last season's Christmas Day matchup despite trailing by 11 points.
Can you really expect anything more from prime time during the holiday season?
Chiefs vs. Raiders odds
| spread | money line | total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| chiefs | -13.5 (-110) | -800 | 42.5 or higher (-110) |
| Raiders | +13.5 (-110) | +550 | Less than 42.5 (-110) |
Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions
Don't get me wrong. The Raiders are a less talented team than almost every other team in the league.
The divisional play could make this game interesting, considering the Chiefs are sleepwalking their way to a near loss to Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.
Still, the Panthers are rated 30th in adjusted defensive value above average (DVOA), while the Raiders are 29th.
Last week, the Chiefs were the 11-point favorites on the road, but now they face the Raiders as 13-point favorites.
My betting model has the expected score for this matchup as 16.8 points for the Raiders and 23.4 points for the Chiefs.
Even with Isaiah Pacheco expected to play Friday, that's too many points for a Chiefs team that isn't taking games outside of January too seriously.
Do you want to bet on college football?
Bet the Raiders first half against the spread (+7). The average first-half point differential is -4.1, and Las Vegas has seen its first-half point differential increase in recent weeks.
Over the past three games, he has averaged 9.7 points in the first half, up from a combined average of 8.1 points.
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders First Half Spread +7 (-120, Fanatics)
