Sports bettors are familiar with regression.
No matter how much attention a team gets, the betting market often catches up. And Monday Night Football, where the Denver Broncos took on the Cleveland Browns as six-point favorites, is a perfect example.
This is the biggest endorsement Denver has had all season. In fact, the Broncos haven't been this heavy a favorite since Week 2 of the 2022 season (44 games in a row).
However, the Broncos finished 7-5 and made the playoffs, becoming one of the league's biggest surprises. This is very different from what oddsmakers expected.
Denver entered the year with a total of 5.5 wins, just barely better than the league-low 4.5 won by the underdogs the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots.
These unexpected wins led to the introduction of point spread covering. Denver is 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, tied with the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the NFL.
Keep in mind that point spreads are designed for a 50/50 outcome, so no team will outperform the market at this rate.
Browns vs Broncos odds
| spread | money line | total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| browns | +6 (-110) | +220 | 42 or more (-110) |
| broncos | -6 (-110) | -275 | Under 42 (-110) |
Browns vs. Broncos predictions
However, there are usually one or two extreme outliers in any season. For example, the Lions were 12-5 ATS last year. In fact, for the past 10 years, the top performers each season have posted coverage rates of around 70%.
This practice will be tough due to the push, small sample size and expanding the regular season from 16 to 17 games.
But the overall takeaway is that not every team finishes the season at 9-8 ATS or 8-9 ATS. Some teams are in charge of 11 to 13 games.
So let's talk about tonight's game.
Will the Broncos end the year as one of those special teams, or will they regress? Is this 6 point spread a sign that the betting market is catching up to them?
Specifically, is it time to fade? After all, we all want to buy the cut or sell the cut.
There will be some taxes, but I don't think we're there yet.
Actually, I've always liked the Broncos. The main reason is that their rookie quarterback is evolving with a steep learning curve. So while a stubborn betting market is gradually adjusting and taxing Denver's preseason perception, I doubt it's adjusting at the same rate as Voenix is improving.
Meanwhile, Denver's opponents are also a little harder to evaluate. The Browns had a disappointing quarterback, Deshaun Watson, but Jameis Winston showed flashes. However, they are just spurts.
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The Browns, 3-8, are repeating their Super Bowl victory, defeating the rival Steelers at home in prime time, with Watson performing a snow angel.
I don't expect a similar level of execution and focus in Denver. The Broncos are more sophisticated and, ironically, I think we're selling the rip in Cleveland.
Pick: Broncos -6 (-115, ESPN Bet)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in sports betting, including 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines by taking $297,000 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
