How the Rams went from dead in the water to the terror of the NFL

It wasn't that long ago that the 2024 Los Angeles Rams were a team that feared no opponent. After losing to the Green Bay Packers in Week 5, Sean McVay's team was stuck at 1-4. Matthew Stafford didn't play much like Matthew Stafford — mainly because Stafford's two top receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, were out with injuries. Stafford was pressured on 65 dropbacks (34.0% overall) and was suffering from back pain.

Equally worrisome was the defense, which was full of young stars with potential but didn't show up. The defensive line, featuring Jared Verse, Byron Young, Koby Turner and Braden Fisk, ranked 27th in sacks and 22nd in total pressures. Partly due to the lack of quarterback confusion, Los Angeles' opponent passer rating of 117.7 was the worst in the NFL. And only the Dallas Cowboys (0.12) allowed a higher opponent rushing EPA per attempt than the Rams' 0.10.

Basically, nothing the Rams wanted to do worked outside of the run game, which held everything together as much as possible. The team was given a bye in Week 6, and all McVay wanted was for his key players to return and start recovering from their injuries and for the team to turn things around… somehow.

“It's a great, fine balance,” McVay said the day after the Packers game. “The ultimate goal is to inspire positive change and the consistency we seek with them. We are always asking ourselves how we can make connections, How do we make sure we create clarity and also trying to understand each of these matchups that happen week to week…what are we doing within our plans? And what are we looking for from our players to help them shine?”

Whatever magic happened during that week's vacation, it certainly appeared.

After the Week 5 loss, the Rams ranked 25th in total DVOA. They have since climbed as high as 17th place. They ranked 17th in offensive DVOA. It's now up to 7th place. Also, his defense DVOA ranking has improved from 31st to 22nd, which seems to have improved considerably.

Obviously the passing game is better with Kupp and Nacua back on the field. how Is it much better? From Weeks 1 to 5, the Rams' passing EPA was -0.03. With both players among the top talents in the game, that rose to +0.09. Stafford's touchdown rate increased from 3.6% to 4.8%, and his interception rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.5%. And the same player who completed 118-of-175 passes for 1,238 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and an 86.3 passer rating through the first five weeks of the season completed 175-of-264 passes for 2,065 yards and TDs. He had 16 knockdowns and four interceptions. His passer rating since then is 103.8.

It also helps that Stafford's pressure numbers have visibly decreased. Since the walkover, he's only been harassed 81 times (29.2%), which makes the 36-year-old Stafford look much more like the Ninja we expect him to be.

We have also improved defensively. The league's worst opponent passer rating has dropped to 90.6 since Week 7 (after the bye), the 11th best in the league. The Rams' 19.0 sacks rank 10th since then, and their 109 total pressures rank fifth. The run defense has also improved, with -0.03 EPA per attempt since Week 7, which ranks much more middling than before.

The Rams, now 7-6 and 6-2 since the bye, prepare to face the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night, a game that will put the defending NFC champions at 6-7 in the playoff picture. It could save him from sex and extend McVay's victory even further. It's sure to be a postseason nightmare for any opponent. Last Sunday's 44-42 victory over the Buffalo Bills cemented how far the Rams have come in a short amount of time.

How did this happen? What does it mean once the postseason begins?

Matthew Stafford brings back star wide receiver

When Kupp and Nacua are sidelined, the Rams aren't completely without a playmaker. McVay adapted as best he could, running 12 players (one back, two tight ends, two receivers), far more than the usual league-best 11 (one back, one tight end, three receivers). Appointed. Receivers Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, DeMarcus Robinson, and tight end Colby Parkinson were the most prolific pass catchers in the absence of these two superstars. But once the most talented players return to the field, it stands to reason that Kupp and Nacua will dazzle us with their brilliance while situational receivers can step back into it. No one overdoes it, and the chemistry Stafford has cultivated with Kupp and Nacua shows up again and again.

When Stafford can attack defenses with all his receivers and all of McVay's condensed splits, targeting and motion concepts…he's lucky to be able to stop it for long periods of time. The bill had little answer to any of that.

Rams offensive line is healthy

One reason Stafford hasn't been under as much pressure since his bye is because his protector is feeling better. Tackle Joe Noteboom and guard Steve Avila each went on injured reserve after the Rams lost to the Detroit Lions in Week 1, but Avila returned in Week 9. Noteboom can play either left tackle or right tackle, but the efforts of Alaric Jackson paid off. The left side was a very pleasant surprise. Jackson, a fourth-year undrafted free agent from Iowa State, was named a Secret Superstar this week after a dominant performance against the Bills' pass rush and run-stopping efforts.

Former Lions star Jonah Jackson, who was supposed to be the Rams' future center after signing a three-year, $51 million contract this offseason, has played just 200 snaps this season while battling injuries of his own. It stays in the book. If Jackson is ready for the final regular season game and a spot in the playoffs, all the better. Beau Rimmer, a sixth-round rookie out of the University of Arkansas, competently filled in for Jackson's absence.

“I have a lot of expectations for that group because I know how talented they are and what kind of group they can be,” offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said Tuesday of his policy. he said. “More importantly, I know they have that standard for themselves, continuing to do what they were able to do not only on Sunday, but Wednesday through Friday… hitting combinations together, We're just starting to get used to passing games together, being together and not being in the training room. It's been a day like we had earlier this year when we were battling injuries. It's good to have them back. That’s it.”

And it could be even better.

Rams defense is coming together

The change from Raheem Morris to defensive coordinator Chris Shula took a second to take effect, as it typically does. Ask the Philadelphia Eagles about their early-season defense under Vic Fangio and what's happened since the players adopted Vick's philosophy on the field.

For the Rams, Shula will likely lead a five-man front because of his talent. The addition of Jared Verse and Braden Fisk, rookies from Florida State who were already used to working together, made a big difference, and it showed on the field. These Rams are a little more likely to press and match opposing receivers, and they have a group of relatively unknown defensive backs who benefit from that.

Third-year Koby Durant, a fourth-round pick out of South Carolina State University who was named a Secret Superstar this week, is perhaps the biggest benefactor. We'll see what the recent addition of 2023 Washington Commanders first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes, who was leaked from the first team, can bring to that equation.

Shula also has a very versatile group of safeties and slot defenders in Jalen McCollough, Kamren Karl, Kamren Kinchens and Quentin Lake. This is a modern defense in that Shula can call multiple fronts and coverages, and these complexities will take time to get everyone on the same page, but it's starting to happen. I am.

“It's really about getting the best 11 on the field and what the offense presents,” Shula said this week. “There are teams that decide what kind of personnel they have and how many people they put on the field based on their personnel. Fortunately, we have a lot of players that can move around. It will determine the matchup, the type of scheme, the type of personnel that will be in place, and whether the staff will be flexible. If you have a player that you feel is good at nickel or safety, you will be the best on the field no matter what. I would get an 11.”

With a “whatever happens” mindset, the entire team seems to be firing on all necessary cylinders. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy knows exactly what the challenge will be Thursday night.

“Honestly, I think they’re doing a lot of just looking at coverage and how they play,” Purdy said Tuesday. “They have a lot on tape, so you have to be at your best on every play, both as an offense and as a quarterback. Sometimes you walk in and you see what they do. I know who they are, and from what I've seen in the movies, I'm expecting them to exhibit certain tendencies throughout the game. But I think they're good at switching things up. Their front is really good and explosive. have gotten better all year. Their secondary, linebackers, all come together. They're playing. [their] The best soccer right now.

“So it’s a big challenge for us.”

How far can the Rams go with this?

At this point, it would be a little sneaky to argue that the Rams are tied with the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings among the best teams in the NFC. But it's also true that since the bye, there haven't been many teams in either conference that look like they'll be anything other than tough outs at worst.

Now, the Rams have become one of those “things are closer than they look” teams, and a team you don't want to be a part of. Other teams in the NFL are also taking notice. They are currently the No. 8 seed in the NFC, so they need to continue their good vibes to make it to the tournament.

But what if? Please be careful.