The dramatic collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship has prompted Western countries to achieved the goal In Syria. But its success could impose lasting costs on the security of the West, especially Europe.
Assad's secular regime has been replaced by violent jihadist forces that Western governments consider terrorists. Under President Joe Biden's watch, first Afghanistan and now Syria have emerged as jihadist strongholds. As has already happened in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, victorious Islamist leaders in Syria have promised to introduce a system based on Islamic law.
The main rebel groups that spearheaded the blitzkrieg on Damascus were: caliphate and have historical connection to both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (or ISIS). Formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, officially a label is attached A foreign terrorist organization established by the United States in 2014.
However, by collaborating with victorious leaders, secret message Biden, on the other hand, is making the same mistake he made when he drew after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Differences at first glance The distinction between “good” and “bad” terrorists was intended to obscure both the significance of the Taliban takeover and the Taliban regime's outreach to terrorist militias.
Current efforts to portray this ferocious terrorist group as a reform group cultivating an image of tolerance parallel attempts in 2021 after the fall of Kabul to rebrand the Taliban leadership as moderate. . Washington is considering removing it today. $10 million bounty About Abu Mohammad Al Jolani, the head of this terrorist army, claim It was a fresh start.
However, just as the Taliban terrorist superstateJolani could turn Syria into a breeding ground for transnational terrorists who share a common ideology and commitment to violent jihad with the Taliban. Those who wage violent jihad can never be moderate.
Don't get me wrong. The surge in violent jihadism in Syria can be traced back to a years-long secret CIA project to topple Assad. billion dollar program President Barack Obama began after seven months of NATO airstrikes toppled another secular dictator, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.
The Syria program, the second largest in CIA history after covert operations against Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s, has been training and arming anti-Assad rebels since 2012, promoting the jihadist movement, and expanding the Syrian-Iraqi Belt. Supported the creation of the Islamic State. , before President Donald Trump Please shut down In 2017, make a call The program is “large, dangerous, and wasteful.” He also said that some of the weapons supplied by the United States went to al qaedaThis is an organization called . came out from They are Afghan Mujahideen trained by the CIA.
More broadly, destabilization in Libya, Syria and Iraq has led to large-scale refugee flows into Europe. 1.1 million It was introduced in Germany alone in 2015. This results in Rise of Islamic extremism In several European countries, terrorist attacks in Munich, Nice, Brussels, Paris, etc. killed About counter-terrorism measures. New challenges have transformed politics, with a resurgence of xenophobia, populism and anti-immigration sentiment across Europe.
Today, the victory of the Syrian rebels is a major boost for global jihadism, including the recruitment of new soldiers. The arc of Islam stretching from the Middle East to the Maghreb region of North Africa could pose a challenge for Europe, with countries neighboring the Afghanistan-Pakistan belt paying a price for their security.
The beleaguered Assad regime, economically and politically weakened by regional development and nearly a decade of US influence. control Production from Syria's oil fields fell into the hands of Islamic extremists without resistance.
President Assad and his late father, President Hafez Assad, ruled Syria for more than half a century. longest political legacy in the Arab world. However, as the United States intervention When a secular dictator is overthrown in the Islamic world, Islamic extremist forces It usually takes over. This often leads to violent upheaval and social change, reducing the status of women to the status of chattel and imposing medieval customs.
This is what happened then in Afghanistan President Muhammad Najibullah He was ousted from power in Iraq in 1992. saddam husseinWhen the government was overthrown in Libya in 2003, Colonel Gaddafi He was expelled in 2011. arab spring “Revolutions” elsewhere have created new strongmen and civil wars. Meanwhile, Libya remains failed state.
In Bangladesh, the recent U.S.-backed regime change has also led to an escalation in Islamist violence, with jihadists seeking to: Arabize Islam By targeting the country's mixed traditions.
The capture of Damascus by Sunni Muslim fighters is unlikely to end the 13-year civil war in multi-ethnic Syria. A flare-up of bloody sectarian conflict and power struggles in Syria could send a new wave of refugees, including radicalized Muslims, to Europe.
Indeed, the fall of one of the last remaining anti-jihadist secular rulers in the Middle East appears to have increased the likelihood of Syria's partition.
Indeed, Ukraine also faces division. Ceasefire in support of President Trump The nearly three-year war has left one-fifth of Ukraine's territory under Russian control. However, the partition of Syria will be along sectarian lines, as happened when Pakistan was separated from India in 1947. Syria may eventually be divided into four parts. It is a large, central Sunni state that covers more than two-thirds of Syria. US-backed Kurdistan is in the northeast, and the Druze region is in the south. and Alawite areas along the Mediterranean coast.
The West won the battle against Assad, inflicting a strategic setback on his patron Russia. Russia's interests have long focused on maintaining several military bases in Syria to expand its influence in the Middle East. But Western countries have forgotten the lessons of 9/11 to avoid the path of geopolitical expediency and focus on long-term interests, and are at risk of losing a nation that is already on the rocks. global war on terrorEspecially as the war front expands as an unintended byproduct of their own policies.
Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and author of nine books, including an award-winning book.“Water: Asia’s New Battlefield.”
