The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season..
Sunday
Browns +4 vs. Chiefs
Advanced Stats hates Kansas City and hates this matchup. Jameis Winston and the Browns have put together a solid offense, and the Chiefs' defense ranks in the bottom five of the NFL against deep passes, so they can expect some success.
KC is completing 53.3 percent of its deep passes, fourth-worst in the NFL, ahead of the Giants (60 percent), Panthers (54.8 percent) and Packers (53.8 percent).
Winston is a deep ball enthusiast, so expect him to be tested a lot against a soft secondary.
Additionally, Cleveland's defense still has the third-best pass rush, according to PFF.
The Chiefs have so much going on right now that it's too hard to back them up. Cleveland won completely.
Giants +16 vs. Ravens
His 16 points is the largest scoring difference in the NFL this year, but this could be Tommy Cutlets' highlight. No one is expecting an upset win right now, and the Giants probably aren't looking for an upset win either.
But Malik Nabors and Tyron Tracy Jr. have enough talent to keep this within two scores. Their defense, with the exception of Dexter Lawrence, is playing hard and playing well.
This unit is rated 12th according to Pro Football Focus.
Jets -3.5 vs. Jaguars
This is where I draw the line at disdain for the Jets.
Like every week, Gang Green should have won last week against a playoff-caliber team. The same can't be said about the Jaguars. Mac Jones is the starting quarterback for the Jaguars, and they have the league's worst defense according to Defensive Adjusted Average (DVOA).
The Jets finally got the win and easily covered this one.
The disdain for Aaron Rodgers is subsiding, and he's finally able to buy the Jets.
Titans +5 vs. Bengals
At some point, the book has to figure out the Titans, right?
Tennessee is the worst team in the league, with a pathetic 2-11 record against the spread, somehow worse than their 3-10 overall record.
On paper, this matchup has a very good outcome against the Bengals. According to DVOA, the Titans' defense ranks 15th best and their offense ranks 31st.
The Bengals have the second-worst defense in the league, according to DVOA, so they could theoretically match that.
The defense hasn't improved either, giving up 6.8 yards per play over the last three games, by far the worst in the NFL.
Last week, they made Cooper Rush look competent in a game he could have easily lost.
Commanders -7.5 vs. Saints
Marshon Lattimore will make his managerial debut against his old team.
New Orleans started Jake Hayner at QB, which should be a nightmare, and has the second-worst run defense, according to DVOA.
It's hard to imagine how the Saints will keep this up. Jaden Daniels runs wild.
Cowboys +3 to Panthers
Dallas still has plenty of power here, so they shouldn't be behind the Panthers.
CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, and Micah Parsons are all quality players worth betting on as underdogs in this game.
Carolina ranks 32nd in the league in rushing defense (DVOA), allowing 5 yards per carry, the most in the NFL.
Texans -3 vs. Dolphins
Miami is not what it used to be, and this matchup is too heavy for them.
The Dolphins are a team built around short passing with speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Texans love to deal with short passing offenses. Short passes (less than 7 air yards) have the lowest success rate in the NFL.
Miami has thrown the fifth-most short passes in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the offense.
Houston also has the second-most interceptions on short passes, so expect Tagovailoa to struggle a bit with these passes.
Broncos -4 vs. Colts
The Broncos have the best offensive line in the NFL.
They boast the No. 1 pass block win rate (70 percent).
Indianapolis doesn't have the talent on either side to win or cover this game at Mile High.
Indianapolis' offense ranks 22nd in DVOA. Don't waste your money on the Colts, put it in Denver.
Lions -2.5 vs. Bills
This week's notable game will be against the Bills on enemy territory.
Both teams have Super Bowl aspirations, but are showing some kinks in their armor.
A better offensive line and defense should take this game home as Detroit controls the ball against the Bills.
In the end, someone other than Josh Allen will have to win.
Steelers +5 to Eagles
Even though Philadelphia was doing well on the field, they were a complete mess behind the scenes.
The interstate competition will be heated, with fierce battles and battles, and the Steelers will likely have an advantage.
He doesn't have to play against the spread offense that the Eagles excel at (the best pass defense in the league, according to PFF).
They should be happy to go into a slugfest and come out victorious without making any mistakes.
Patriots +6 to Cardinals
Jerod Mayo is probably coaching for his job in this game, especially considering the grueling schedule late in the season.
New England continues to improve defensively, boasting the seventh-highest YPC allowed (3.9) in the NFL.
The offense, which has struggled this year (4.7 yards per play, second-worst in the NFL), is improving with 5.4 YPP over the past three games.
The Patriots are also allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing QBs, so don't expect Kyler Murray to be wild again this weekend.
Chargers -3 vs. Buccaneers
Both teams are dealing with serious injuries, but this is where the coaches get their juices flowing. Jim Harbaugh should have, almost could have, won against the Chiefs last week without playmakers J.K. Dobbins and Rad McConkie.
Nothing seems to be going in the right direction this week, but don't worry.
The Buccaneers will likely be without running back Bucky Irving this week as well. The Chargers have the 7th best defense in yards allowed per play and DVOA, so I favor the better defense.
Packers -2.5 vs. Seahawks
Seattle has struggled to move the ball this season, but their passing offense is among the best in the league thanks to the rise of Jackson Smith and Nijiba.
The Packers' injury numbers are becoming a concern, and again the matchup is not ideal.
Their 7 yards allowed per pass attempt is in the bottom half of the league and getting worse by the week, and Seattle's defense actually has a better rating in terms of DVOA for the season.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Monday
Bears +7 vs. Vikings
It's not easy to boost a team that was humiliated in its interim manager's debut game.
But rookie QB Caleb Williams should be up to the task as he faces a tough Minnesota defense on the road.
In the first matchup, a game the Bears should have won, Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. 7 points is too many here.
Falcons -4 to Raiders
It's time to draw a line in the sand again.
It's all about a perceived regression from Kirk Cousins, which could be a real regression at this point.
Either way, there isn't a single position where the Raiders are better than the Falcons, who have the third-best offense per PFF.
According to PFF, this is in line with Desmond Ridder, who was the worst QB in the NFL last season. Bet on the Falcons, who tout the element of a revenge game and still have plenty of opportunities to play.
last week:6-5-1
season: 92-97-2
