Post Sports Gambling Editor/Producer, Digital Sports Editor Matt Ehardt is in his first season of NFL Bettor's Guide.
Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Houston Texans
This game won't be played in 40 degree weather, so there's no need to worry about the Dolphins being softer than Charmin.
Miami needs a win to stay in playoff contention, but their offense is playing well, making them the underdog in Houston.
It also takes into account that it will be difficult for the Texans to trust behind inconsistent second-year QB C.J. Stroud.
Houston's last five games include losses to the Jets and Titans, a blowout loss to the Lions and a narrow win over the Jaguars in Week 13.
The Texans also didn't play well at home, going 4-2 and winning twice by six points, four points, and three points.
This feels like a close game for a field goal, so we're going to beat the underdog that we believe we can win outright.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are playing hard, but I believe the Buccaneers offense can close this game out, if not win it outright.
The Chargers have been overachieving this season, but running back JK Dobbins and tight end Will Dissly are down, star rookie Rad McConkie was out with an injury last week, and Justin Herbert has been a little off.
Los Angeles is also in a bit of an offensive funk, scoring just 17 points in the past two games.
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Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in all but one game.
While the Bucks' defense is a concern, the expectation is that their offense will play well enough.
The Chargers' once-proud defense has regressed recently against tougher teams.
last week: 0-2. Falcons (left), Saints (left).
season: 10-18.
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Matt Ehardt has been against spreads since childhood, when he joined his father's newspaper pool and even won top prize multiple times. He specializes in NFL betting and has also had great success in NCAA games.
