The Boca Raton Bowl is the epitome of bowl season betting, with James Madison heading into Western Kentucky as a seven-point favorite to win.
Transfer and weather news has seen betting odds swing both ways, which has been the nature of the beast in recent years.
The over/under has been slowly dropping from 53 to 51.5 and I completely agree with the line movement and am playing the under. The only concern is that lower tier bowl games often involve aggressive play-calling on fourth down and similarly reckless decisions. But all the variables point to us heading towards a low-scoring event.
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| james madison | -7.5 (-110) | +225 | 51.5 or higher (-105) |
| western | +7.5 (-110) | -275 | Less than 51/5 (-115) |
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky Prediction
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
First, both starting quarterbacks have entered the transfer portal. Second, neither of these passing offenses were all that impressive even when they had their starting signal-callers. And third, wind and rain can hinder the passing game.
James Madison opened as a 7-point favorite, but his support rose to 9.5 points when the betting market learned that Hilltoppers starting QB Caden Veltkamp had entered the transfer portal. However, the Dukes officially lost their starter to injury and the line shifted to 6.5.
Then a strange development took place. Veltkamp announced he will play in the bowl game, although he remains in the portal. That's weird to me and I'd be surprised if he played the entire game. The market basically agrees, as this announcement hasn't changed the market. A very sharp play at one sportsbook moved the market from 6.5 points to 7 points.
“The Dukes and their 30th-ranked rushing offense, with 190 yards per game, favor Western Kentucky's run defense, which ranks near the bottom of the FBS with 221 points per game,” said pro sports bettor Paul Bovey. “I should,” he told Only Players. “James Madison will obviously be motivated by the fact that he has never won a bowl game since making the jump from the FCS in 2022,” coach Bob Chesney said. This will be my first bowl game experience in my entire year of coaching.”
Do you want to bet on college football?
Chesney brought several players into the transfer portal to replace Curt Cignetti, who left for Indiana last offseason. But it's WKU that has transfer issues this year, with 10 starters and several reserves, but it's unclear who will miss this game.
I often fade out teams that lose in conference championship games, so here I'll bet on the Hilltoppers and fade out. But my main play is under.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in sports betting, including 11 years as a host, columnist and betting analyst at ESPN. He also grabbed headlines by taking $297,000 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
