College Football Playoff picks, best bets

College football's 12-team playoff presents a scenario never seen in the entire history of the sport.

Schools will host postseason games in late December, but there's no way to accurately predict the impact, especially considering the inclement weather.

Over two weeks on the betting board, the Happy Valley showdown has seen little line movement.

Sixth-ranked Penn State is the home favorite by 8.5 points over No. 11 SMU in Saturday's “whiteout” game at Beaver Stadium.

SMU vs. Penn State odds

I have personally witnessed this impressive and intimidating environment, but the noon kickoff (rather than prime time) minimizes the impact to some extent.

I also think we'll see a much more composed Mustang team than we saw in the ACC title game.

Frankly, SMU was unprepared for the pressure and scale. Their playoff chances were in jeopardy on Dec. 7 against Clemson, when the Mustangs made multiple mistakes in the first quarter and dug themselves a 21-0 hole.

However, after some initial confusion, the Mustangs regained their composure and tied the game.

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This time, Rhett Lashley is going to have his men ready and loose.

I also expect quarterback Kevin Jennings to play like he did in the second half, mirroring his play all season after taking over as the starter.

This is an explosive offense and a strong defensive front that should allow the Mustangs to hang out.

On the other hand, I was impressed with Penn State's resiliency in the Big Ten title game, but James Franklin remains involved.

He's a great coach, but he also has a knack for being too conservative in these high-stakes games and only dominating bad or mediocre teams.

Read more of Doug Kezirian's analysis on Only Players

I like teams that are losing by points, and I think there's even a slight chance they'll win outright. Let's put it this way. A four-leg moneyline parlay for all four favorites is +200. Even a parlay with just three popular horses on Saturday would be +115. This means that the home team is more likely to fail to hold serve.

And I think Mustang is the player who can play the role of spoiler.

Best bet: SMU +8.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Why trust New York Post Betting?

Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in the betting field, including 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He is also a rare record of success – 14th place at the 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas Supercontest ($37,000) and two top-10 finishes at the 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58,000). He made headlines for winning an additional $297,000 in the 2021 NFL Draft.