The Post's Erich Richter shares his picks and predictions for Week 17 of the NFL season..
Sunday
Titans +1.5 vs. Jaguars
Going 2-13 against a 3-13 record is an offensive attack for Titans coach Brian Callahan. Tennessee waited too long to bench quarterback Will Revis.
The new signal caller is Mason Rudolph, who is nothing to write home about, but doesn't turn the ball over at a historic rate.
He had three interceptions last week, so don't hold your breath to see if the Titans can figure it out.
The Jaguars defense has the fewest takeaways (8) in the NFL.
Packers +1.5 vs. Vikings
Sharps has been betting on the Vikings up, down, left and right since this line opened, as Green Bay opened as a two-point favorite and the line has now flipped to Packers +1.5.
Sharps clearly thinks we're overreacting to the dominance the Packers have shown recently.
However, my model lists the Packers as a 1-point favorite to win, the DVOA supports that, and Green Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL to 6th behind the Vikings.
It's the featured game of the weekend. Sit back and enjoy a true playoff game.
Buccaneers -8 vs. Panthers
Tampa Bay needed overtime to defeat the Panthers in Week 13, and I don't expect that to happen again for several reasons.
Carolina allows the sixth-fewest yards per play on offense and the fifth-most yards per play on defense.
The Panthers rode Chuva Hubbard to a few wins and covered as an underdog, but Hubbard finished the season and the Buccaneers allowed just 2.8 YPC.
If you let Bryce Young pitch, you're going to see him make mistakes. Bucky Irving hits a smash to increase the score in an important divisional game.
Colts -7.5 vs. Giants
There's not much that can be said statistically to say that the Giants should be anything more than touchdown dogs at home against the . is not even debatable to me. .
Their offense can't sustain drives and their defense can't turn them over.
The defense also struggled against the run, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per carry this season.
Joe Flacco is Indy's starting pitcher and loves to throw the ball deep.
The Giants are allowing a 58.2 percent completion rate on deep passes, by far the worst in the NFL.
Raiders -1 vs. Saints
The Saints suffered a shutout loss to the Packers and looked completely incompetent for most of the game.
The Raiders, on the other hand, looked solid against the Jaguars, facing a team with the second-worst rushing defense in the NFL (31st in run defense DVOA).
Las Vegas seems to be playing harder at this stage and the money is reliable for Sunday.
Jets +10 against BILLS
The Jets won't stop teasing what could be.
Gang Green is currently trailing by double digits thanks to an improved run attack with a YPC of 4.4 over the last three games and overall offense.
They rank 18th offensively in DVOA, ahead of the playoff-bound Seahawks, Broncos and Colts.
The Jets will likely play this divisional game close enough to cover a 10-point deficit, but will likely suffer another heartbreaking loss.
Cowboys +7.5 vs. EAGLES
Oddsmakers suggest the drop from Jalen Hurts to Kenny Pickett is worth just four points, as the spread changed from 11.5 to 7.5 after Hurts was announced sidelined with a concussion.
This number seems a little low considering that the 8th and 9th points of a given spread are almost worthless.
Dallas believes that now, and their defense is forcing a ton of turnovers, averaging the fourth-most turnovers (2.3) over the past three games.
The gap between Cooper Rush and Pickett is also pretty negligible, even with CeeDee Lamb out this weekend.
Dolphins -6.5 vs. Browns
Dorian Thompson-Robinson may be the worst quarterback in the NFL, but his supporting cast is no better.
Cleveland is rated 32nd league-wide in DVOA and started running Thompson Robinson at quarterback.
He has only thrown one touchdown in his NFL career and was unable to score in front of the Bengals' terrible pass defense.
He will never find a greater sanctuary. Miami has the 12th best pass defense in yards per pass attempt (6.5) and the 8th best against the run (4.3 YPC allowed).
There are enough places here to cruise Miami.
Falcons +4 vs. Commanders
The Commanders may be the luckiest team in the NFL.
Washington, which won a Hail Mary earlier this year, was on its way to being completely waxed by the Eagles on Sunday until Jalen Hurts went down with an injury.
This extraordinary flow of good fortune must come to an end someday.
Atlanta is 10th best in yards per play allowed on offense (5.7) and 13th best in yards allowed per play (5.4).
Most of that is with Kirk Cousins, and Michael Penix should be nothing short of an upgrade here. Atlanta roll.
Monday
Lions -3.5 over 49ERS
Before the season started, this game was tied with the 49ers -4.5, but now this game is a shell of the greatness it was expected to be. It's an injured vs. injured game on “Monday Night Football.”
Detroit still holds out hope of clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC while Kyle Shanahan's group plays for pride.
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Their perimeter stats remain excellent, ranking 11th in DVOA, 4th in yards per play (6.1), and 4th best in yards allowed per play (5.1).
They've found ways to lose in the past two games by taking too many sacks (6), not taking any sacks (0), and turning the ball over (-2 turnover differential). Ta.
In Detroit, it's a bit of a must-win chess match, especially if the Packers beat the Vikings on Sunday.
last week: 6-6-1
season: 105-114-3
