If an election were held today, Nigel Farage's Reform Britain would have a major impact, with the ruling left-wing Labor Party losing a parliamentary majority and nearly 200 seats, an analysis has found.
Despite winning a landslide victory less than six months ago, analysis carried out by think tank More in Common shows support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labor party has fallen, losing at least 183 seats in the House of Commons. It turned out. They will lose their majority in the House of Representatives.
So-called “mega vote” carried out representing london sunday times He also predicted that seven current ministers would lose their jobs, six of whom would fall to candidates from Nigel Farage's Reform Party.
Analysis suggests Deputy Prime Minister Angela Ryner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defense Secretary John Healey, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will all lose to reformers. Become. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, meanwhile, is expected to lose to an independent candidate after narrowly defeating a pro-Gaza candidate in July.
A constituency-by-constituency survey of more than 11,000 people found that Labor would only win 228 seats if voting were held today. This was a shocking decrease from the 411 seats won by left-wing parties in the summer.
Importantly, this is well below the 326 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, meaning Labor will need to form a European-style coalition government to remain in power. But its natural ally, the Liberal Democrats, is predicted to win just 58 seats, falling short of the majority threshold with Labor and likely meaning a hung parliament.
Meanwhile, the poll shows Nigel Farage's Reform Party has made significant gains, jumping from just five MPs to 72, enough to become the third-largest party in the House of Commons.
“Since July, Labor has lost significant support in a very short period of time, and so far the Conservatives’ recovery has been by a narrow margin with the core vote, there is real momentum for reform, and the SNP has The Lib Dems are likely to gain significant support as they benefit from the woes of 'resilience',' said Luke Till, UK director at More in Common.
With the next scheduled election not until 2029 and no prospect of an early snap election, there will be plenty of time for reforms to continue to grow. The polling body's current modeling shows the party heading for significant wins in areas such as South Yorkshire, North Nottinghamshire, Greater Manchester and Wales. The research firm also noted that the Reform Party is already in second place in the poll with 206 seats, suggesting that the Reform Party may perform much better than current expectations. did.
Nevertheless, the poll is likely to be a further boon for Farage's party, which surpassed the number of paid members of the so-called Conservative Party during the Christmas break.
The poll will be conducted during another investigation More in Common reveals growing pessimism about Starmer and his left-wing government's ability to improve the country. Half of Britons said they thought the country would be worse off in 2025 than it was in 2024, but just 23% said they thought the country would be better off under Labor. Around one in three people thought Mr Starmer would be forced to resign at some point next year, but under the UK system Mr Starmer would be forced to resign from his party rather than holding a new national election. He will be replaced only by his colleagues.
