As 2025 begins, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) faces the perilous task of keeping the gavel. Johnson can only lose one Republican when it comes to a vote in the House of Commons on Friday.
problem? Rep. Thomas Massey (R-Ky.) has already vowed to oppose Mr. Johnson, comparing President Trump's support to that of controversial former Speaker Paul Ryan. Meanwhile, others, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), remain undecided. It is no exaggeration to say that Mr. Johnson is at the brink of political rock bottom.
For those of us of the chatty class, a New Year's parliamentary play is irresistible. But the wise choice for Republicans, at least for now, would be to avoid the melodrama and reelect Johnson.
The direct reason is obvious. as a fox news correspondent Chad Pergram warns“The House absolutely, unequivocally, cannot do anything until it elects a Speaker, period. Trump will become the 47th president of the United States on January 6th.
But the risks go beyond urgent procedural needs. Mr. Trump will be effectively a lame-duck president, and his first two years in office, with Republicans in control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress, will be his best chance to advance his agenda. With a razor-thin House majority, Republicans band together to accept the troubling reality of governing (i.e., MAGA realizes it doesn't have enough votes to do everything President Trump has promised) Or waste valuable time pursuing ideological purity (i.e., the extent to which MAGA has a coherent ideology).
A prolonged battle for the speaker's gavel would be a bad way to start the 2025 Congress. Not only would it be a waste of time, but it risks turning the party's leadership contest into a fruitless game of musical chairs.
This is not an exaggeration. Johnson's rise highlights broader contradictions. His nickname is “MAGA Mike.” a label is attached Mr Johnson was an “election denier” in his efforts to contest the 2020 results, but in 2023 he has been elevated to a rearguard conservative against the Republican establishment represented by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But now some grassroots voices celebrating Mr Johnson's rise to power are accusing him of not being sufficiently committed to the cause.
This repeating cycle raises uncomfortable questions. If all conservative chairs end up being accused of “traitors,'' is it because all conservatives are secretly establishment insiders? Or are the policies demanded by the grassroots right so extreme and unrealistic that no leader, no matter how ideologically pure, can govern effectively while adhering to them?
For now, Johnson's thankless agenda has divided opinion over issues such as spending cuts and President Trump's potentially unrealistic desire to raise the debt ceiling before the start of his second term. , to maintain unity within the fractious Republican coalition. Failure to deliver results risks reinforcing the perception among Trump supporters that establishment “swamp creatures” are interfering with their will.
Meanwhile, Johnson has come under intense scrutiny not only for his policies but also for his appearance and attitude. President Trump recently praised him as a “good, hard-working, and godly man.” While these qualities are generally a strength, they risk being seen as a weakness in the ultra-macho MAGA world, fueling doubts about Johnson's ability to lead a movement defined by confrontation and destruction.
But for those who think the Republican Party would be better off with a stronger leader, it's worth asking what would happen if Johnson were to be ousted. Will he quietly return to Congress? Republicans, with their slim majority, clearly could not afford to force him to resign from Congress, even if the vacancy was temporary.
Patience and pragmatism – continuing to support Mr Johnson – seem to be the obvious way forward. But for a party that loves chaos, such restraint is easier said than done. Their leader, Trump, embodies this contrarian dynamic. Trump's current egoism is consistent with pragmatism, but his entire psyche rejects it. Unlike President Barack Obama's “don't do anything stupid” mantra, Trumpism thrives on destroying things and flooding the zone with…
This lack of discipline has serious consequences. Internal dissent has disrupted President Trump's policies before, most notably with Sen. John McCain's “denial” of repealing Obamacare in 2017. With the House majority so slim, even a minor rift could derail President Trump's legislative ambitions for a second term.
For now, the Republicans' smartest move is also the simplest: reelect Johnson. A split in the Republican Party would not only cause political embarrassment, but also the risk of failing to fulfill the promises that brought it to power.
The party can always reconsider its options if Johnson later wavers, but it would be a fatal mistake to start the year with a self-inflicted crisis.
Matt K. Lewis He is also a columnist, podcaster, and book author.Too stupid to fail” and “filthy rich politician”
