The Duke Blue Devils have exceeded expectations all season, and they have a chance to exceed them again on Thursday.
The Blue Devils will face Ole Miss with a crowd expected to favor the Rebels at Everbank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida.
Duke has several opt-outs in this game thanks to the transfer portal. As such, the Blue Devils (9-3) are a 17.5-point underdog.
Starting quarterback Malik Murphy and backup Grayson Loftis opted out of the game after entering the transfer portal.
Coach Manny Diaz will not play in this game, but he brought in new quarterback Darian Mensah on a whopping $8 million NIL contract.
Third-string quarterback Henry Bellin IV, a former three-star recruit in the Class of 2022, is scheduled to start for the Blue Devils on Thursday.
This is a significant downgrade for the quarterback compared to opposing teams, as Jackson Dart will be filling in for Ole Miss (9-3) and will not opt out of this game. Duke's defense should give Dart some trouble, as it is the 17th-ranked defense in the FBS, allowing just 4.7 yards per play and a solid 3.9 yards per carry.
Considering this is a tough way to end a great season for the Blue Devils, their preseason over/under win total is 6.5, with nine wins en route to this earned bowl appearance. Obtained. The losses against SMU (overtime) and Miami are nothing to sneeze at either. Still, their offense wasn't good this year. They were rated 92nd in the FBS, allowing just 5.2 yards per play.
Mississippi State had the third-highest yards per play in the nation (6.8), so Dart's strong quarterback play will help them win.
Duke vs. Ole Miss odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| duke | +17.5 | +550 | 52.5 or above |
| Ole Miss | -17.5 | -800 | Less than 52.5 |
This line previously started at 9.5 points and has been staked by eight more points since the opt-out Duke was forced to deal with in this game.
Unless this game smells like an exhibition, like Michigan vs. Alabama on New Year's Eve, you're probably going to bet on Ole Miss -17.5.
Be aware of this possibility and target the under.
I know Ole Miss could rout Duke, but they still have strong coaching and defensive structure thanks to Coach Diaz. Remember that defensive units are not destroyed by transfer either.
Duke vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Total Points Less than 51.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
