The new year in Ukraine began much like the end of the old one, with deadly Russian drone attacks across Russia. In Kiev, one person was killed and at least six others were injured in the first hours of 2025.
Ukraine celebrated its third New Year since the Russian invasion. Even if 2023 began with high hopes that victories on the battlefields of Ukraine would push Russia back and lead to complete victory, by the beginning of 2024 the Ukrainian military and people were already accustomed to long wars and would soon There was little illusion that we could win.
2025 begins with morale at perhaps the lowest point of the war, with Donald Trump's presidency looming. President Trump has said ending the war is one of his top international priorities, and has appointed retired US general Keith Kellogg as special envoy for the task.
The veteran Mr. Kellogg is expected to arrive in Kiev soon, making him a more welcome addition to Ukraine than others in Mr. Trump's orbit who have clearly pro-Russian views. Kellogg had already visited Ukraine during the war and witnessed the outcome of the Russian war. Ukrainian officials believe that such visits often fundamentally change the way Western politicians view the conflict.
Before taking office, Kellogg threatened to cut weapons if Ukraine refused to negotiate with Russia, but signaled that he would increase weapons if Russia did not comply. Recently, he has criticized Russia for its attacks on Ukraine, but he has also blamed Ukraine for acts such as the assassination of a Russian general in Moscow.
“The world is watching the actions of both sides closely,” he said. I wrote to X After condemning Russia for its attacks on Ukrainian cities on Christmas Day.
This equivalence implied a fair fight between two equally responsible parties, and felt that this was an unfair characterization of Russia's brutal invasion of a sovereign state, and the capitals of Kiev and other allied countries Some are alarmed.
“Think of a cage fight. You have two fighters, and they both want to tap out. You need a referee to tell them apart. And President Donald J. Trump can do that. I think — he has the vision to make it happen,'' Kellogg said in a recent television appearance.
However unpopular such statements may be in Kiev, it is clear that Ukraine is in dire need of a change in power relations. Russia continues its fierce offensive, and Kiev is struggling to mobilize enough troops to hold the front lines. Two officials from Ukraine's air defense forces told the newspaper last month. guardian The situation was so bad that trained air defense operators had been ordered to the front to join infantry brigades.
Added to this is growing dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, with many in Kyiv feeling that the decision to aid Ukraine has come too late to produce gradual change, while in Washington, Volodymyr Zelenskiy I feel that the administration is not willing to make difficult decisions. Political choices such as lowering the recruitment age.
Mutual irritations have occasionally spilled into public view as Biden's term comes to a close, and many in Kiev have expressed concern for President Trump, even as there are signs that things could be much more difficult for Ukraine. began to quietly welcome the possibility of the White House. Meanwhile, a completely new political situation is emerging in Washington, and there is a clear sense that Ukraine is entering the unknown at a time when the situation on the front is at its most dire.
After newsletter promotion
“It feels like you're playing a video game and after years of progressing through the levels, you finally know how to operate,” one security official in Kyiv says of Biden's difficult but productive relationship with Ukraine. spoke. management. “The rules are all different now and it would be difficult to relearn them.”
Back in May, guardian In an interview with President Zelensky, Trump said his plan for becoming president was to impose on the next US leader that if he accepted President Vladimir Putin's word that he wanted peace, he would be a “loser president.” He said that it should be done. he.
Mr. Zelensky is now trying a different tack, making remarks that appear tailored to appeal to the perception that Mr. Trump himself is a dealmaker. “Trump can be decisive…He has the right qualities to be decisive in this war. He can stop Putin, or rather we can stop him,” he said in an interview with Ukrainian TV on Thursday. can help stop Putin.”
President Putin also expressed flattery towards President Trump after the assassination attempt on the campaign trail, praising his intelligence and courage.
“There's a reason why President Putin calls President Trump smart,” Russian political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya said. “It's a game of 'You're smart, you're not stupid' with Trump. You know how to do things.”
As the two leaders wait to see what President Trump's Ukraine policy will look like, there are no signs that either Moscow or Kiev is ready for the kind of concessions the other would consider the minimum conditions for peace. Almost none.
Putin wants to occupy at least the territory he already controls, and he also has demands for Ukrainian neutrality and disarmament that are impossible to sell politically for any Ukrainian leader. There is. Meanwhile, President Zelenskiy acknowledged that painful compromises may be necessary, but in return some meaningful security against subsequent Russian escalation, such as NATO membership or a promise to send Western peacekeepers to the field. argued that it was necessary. Both options seem unlikely at this point.
A senior Western defense official who has left office but remains in touch with the Ukrainian side said there was little sign that Ukraine was prepared to make concessions without such a commitment, adding: “Western security is crucial in peace negotiations. Without guarantees, what can prevent Putin from invading again in a few years?”
Additional reporting by Pjotr Sauer
