It's the last week to bet for or against the worst team in the NFL, as Week 18 marks the end for 18 of 32 teams.
Week 18 is an important week for player props as players look to earn their season incentive bonuses.
We've created a complete player incentive tracker packed with props for players you might want to bet on this week.
You'll notice a few of them trickling into our best player prop bet for the final week of the regular season.
Week 18 NFL Player Props, Picks
Kyler Murray 50+ Rushing Yards (+310, Bet 365 | All-Time TD Scorer (+170, DraftKings))
When betting on quarterback availability, you need to ask yourself three things:
- Are they motivated to run the ball relative to their projection (the higher the projection, the more motivated they should be)?
- Will the defense this quarterback is facing be key in stopping the quarterback's run?
- Do you have a (special) motivation for running? This includes if a key weapon is injured, if it's a big game and the clash is an expected shootout and could interfere with coverage.
In order to meet the above criteria, Kyler Murray hasn't run as much this year as he has in the past.
He has one 50-yard completion in the past five games (though he did have a 48-yard completion against the Vikings' defense).
Perhaps most notable is the loss of backfield talent to Murray with the departures of James Conner and Trey Benson.
Murray is going to need to be nimble with his feet if they want to get down the field.
The 49ers rank in the middle of the pack in yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks and in the bottom half in yards allowed per carry.
Murray scored a rushing touchdown and a 50-yard run in this game and will earn $750,000.
This is a solid chunk of change and I'm a solid bet on him getting the 4pm slot.
Blake Colm Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115, DraftKings) | 53.5+ Rushing Yards (-110, Fanatics) 120+ Rushing Yards (16/1, Bet 365)
I've been on board with Blake Colm ever since he came to Michigan, and I loved him coming out of the draft with the Rams.
Why he isn't given a lesser workload than Kyren Williams leaves me with too many questions this year.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
With Williams finally inactive and he should get most of the work with Ronnie Rivers splitting up sporadically, bettors will have the opportunity to bet on him without any confusion.
The Seahawks' run defense is just below average, allowing opposing running backs the ninth-most yards per carry in the NFL.
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua are also out for this game, so there's no reason to believe Colm won't play a key role in the attack.
The Rams running blocking unit is the 6th best in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, so there should be some running room here.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
