President-elect Trump has ramped up speculation about a final battle with Greenland as he redoubles his calls for Danish territory, making observers and allies alike nervous.
President Trump reiterated his desire to purchase the island at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, the same day his son Donald Trump Jr. visited the island.
Observers dismiss the idea that the United States could realistically acquire Greenland. But President-elect Trump's comments have raised concerns and brought the island's strategic importance back into focus amid rising tensions with other Arctic players such as China and Russia.
“It's not yet clear what the endgame will be,” said Rebecca Pincus, director of the Wilson Center Polar Institute, a global affairs think tank. “Denmark is a founding member of NATO, and the Danish government and the Greenlandic government have expressed pretty adamant opposition to selling Greenland. I think that would be very, very challenging.”
Greenland has been strategically important to the United States since at least the early Cold War, when the so-called GIUK Gap (the stretch of water between Greenland, Iceland, and Great Britain) was essential to containing the Soviet Navy.
“There's an argument that the North Atlantic is important, and because the North Atlantic is important, Greenland is important. Now there's another question: Should the United States own Greenland?” said John Alterman, Vice President and Chair of the Zbigniew Brzezinski International Conference. “The Danes' reaction is: 'We've been working together on this issue for a quarter of a century. There's no need to change the status quo,'” said the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Security and Geopolitics.
Alterman added that Trump likes to attract attention and alarm, and that “this is an example of him convincing people that something they thought was resolved hasn't been resolved yet.” Ta.
“So even if we're not talking about whether the United States is going to buy Greenland next week, there's a sense that this administration is not going to be complacent, and it's going to give America's enemies and allies alike that the United States cares about the world. “It sends a message that you're playing,” he said.
Daniel Freed, former U.S. ambassador to Poland and Atlantic Council fellow, pointed to the 1951 treaty that gave the United States tremendous control over Greenland's defense. The treaty was established after then-President Truman made a “half-hearted attempt” to purchase Greenland in 1946.
“This is an agreement that's been around for so long that people forget about it, but it's there,” Fried said. “Mr. Trump is right that the United States has a security interest in Greenland. And if this agreement is not enough, I want to know why and where it is not enough. Because it is not in question. Because there isn’t.”
“And I don't think they make the case as to why Greenland's importance justifies this kind of intimidation and bullying,” he added. “Denmark has made a significant contribution to our common security.”
President Trump has expressed interest in Greenland in recent weeks, but this is not the first time he has mentioned the possibility of the United States acquiring it. He first mentioned the possibility in 2019, during his first term in office, when he reportedly suggested Denmark trade Puerto Rico.
Although these plans did not come to fruition, President Trump renewed his focus on making them a reality during the transition to his second term.
Twice on Tuesday, he reiterated his belief that the United States should acquire Greenland, first calling a meeting his son was holding with some Greenlanders. He called Greenland a “very special place” that needs security, both for its country and for the world.
“We're going to treat you with respect,” Trump said.
He later told a news conference that he would not promise not to use economic or military power to control Greenland, along with the Panama Canal, and expressed concern about Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
President Trump also vowed to impose tariffs on Denmark if it refuses to cede Greenland.
Denmark has owned Greenland for centuries, gradually granting greater autonomy to the island in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans. Greenland voted for autonomy in 2008 and took control of its internal affairs, but Denmark remained responsible for foreign affairs, including defence.
Purchases of Greenland have been floated many times in U.S. history, but never proceeded to a sale.
Both the Danish and Greenlandic governments have steadfastly rejected the idea of Greenland joining the United States.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a local television station on Tuesday that Greenland's Prime Minister Moute Egede had made it “very clear” that “Greenland is not for sale and will never be for sale.” He said Greenlanders have also shown support for it.
“We must not lose our long struggle for freedom,” Egede told President Trump last month.
Experts have cast doubt on the possibility of a takeover, but note Greenland's strategic role in the international order and argue that a strong U.S. presence in the region is critical to national security goals. did.
Alterman told The Hill that the president-elect “likes to do things and see the reaction.”
“One of the other things he has is a certain willingness to experiment and do things over and over again to see which approach is more effective,” he said. “I think his approach to gatherings was like a stand-up comedian honing his craft. He means eliciting a response. He sees the response and adapts to it.”
Pincus said Greenland's geographical location is of strategic importance, but it is also “rich” in natural resources, including rare minerals, and has “unlimited potential” for hydropower generation from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Ta.
“When you combine all these strengths and attributes with people pursuing independence, it's easy to see why interest in independence is growing,” she says.
Roman Schuffert, president and managing director of the Arctic Institute, pointed to Egede's statement on Tuesday, saying:[our] The fight for our future and independence is our business. He noted that part of Greenland's foreign policy strategy for the next decade is “nothing about us without us.”
Despite President Trump's push for a takeover and Denmark and Greenland's steadfast rejection of it, Tuffert said he thinks a conflict between the two countries is “extremely unlikely.” said. But if that happens, he added, it could undermine U.S. credibility internationally.
“If such a scenario were to materialize, it would represent a major failure of U.S. diplomacy and deal a serious blow to the credibility of the country's foreign policy on the world stage,” Chuffert said. said.
Jim Townsend, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy, acknowledged that China and Russia are trying to increase their influence in the region, as President Trump has claimed, but said He said trying to buy rands is not the best way. address the problem.
he mentioned the united states buy alaska from russia It was founded in 1867 for strategic purposes and pointed out that the world now operates differently than it did then.
“If there are issues here, we will meet with Greenlanders and Denmark and try to resolve the concerns of the United States,” Townsend said.
