George Costanza tried to warn us, but worlds collide.
The Bills host the Broncos as 8.5-point home favorites, marking a watershed moment for two big betting trends from this regular season.
First, Denver finished with a league-best 12-5 against the point spread (ATS), outperforming expectations more than literally any other team. Betting markets are always adjusting to a team's performance, and the Broncos have consistently exceeded their expectations.
However, the favorites had a historically strong regular season ATS of 142-121-6 (54.0 percent), their best record since 2017 and seventh-best in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN. It is said that
To what extent will this one-sided record carry over into the postseason, where the environment is clearly different?
“That's all out the window for me. It totally depends on the situation,” pro bettor James Salinas told Only Players. “We haven’t gotten much out of the regular season.”
I support the Bills. I respect the season in which Denver went 10-7 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2015, but the Broncos trailed at 4-5 ATS and won just two games. And both came in September.
This team definitely caught the betting market by surprise after starting the year with a total of 5.5 wins. But in the end, they started to resemble an average team that takes advantage of weaker opponents.
From October to December, Denver failed to beat a team with a record above .500. The Broncos have racked up wins against bad and subpar teams, but now they will have to face a Super Bowl contender in a hostile environment.
“Over four quarters, Denver is going to be exhausted. The offense doesn't have the staying power to keep the defense on the sidelines. Fatigue is going to set in,” Salinas said in support of the Bills-8.5 bet.
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On November 3, the Broncos traveled to Baltimore as a nine-point deficit, but lost to the Ravens 41-10. Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards thanks to numerous defensive breakdowns. This match should play out similarly.
Additionally, they are playing the Bills to score over 29.5 points. As pro bettor Adam Chernoff mentioned on his podcast, “The Simple Handicap,” Allen hates man coverage, and Denver gets a lot of that coverage. Allen will rely on his short passing game and leg strength to keep the chains moving and produce a ton of points.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and currently serves as chief content officer at sports betting media company Only Players. Doug has over 20 years of experience in the betting field, including 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He is also a rare record of success – 14th place at the 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas Supercontest ($37,000) and two top-10 finishes at the 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58,000). He made headlines for winning an additional $297,000 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
