I'm actually very intrigued by this matchup between the Chiefs and Texans. The main reason for that is because I think the Texans defense is currently playing the best football in the NFL. What they did against the Chargers during wild-card weekend could violate the Geneva Convention. They pressured Justin Herbert on more than half of his dropbacks, forced four interceptions, and allowed -0.58 EPA per play, the fourth-lowest mark in the playoffs since 2016. (via Next Gen Stats). This game felt like a perfect example of what head coach DeMeco Ryans has wanted from his defense since arriving from San Francisco. The Texans don't send much pressure (15th in blitz rate by Pro Football Reference), but when they do, they bring it. They are 7th in sack percentage and 1st in “worst moments” to tee off on an opponent, and they do it from a front that tries to isolate the opponent's weakest link.
When the Texans try to tee off on an opponent, they often end up lining up with an overloaded front. This means Houston will have three defensive linemen on one side of the line, then one star EDGE Daniel Hunter or Will Anderson Jr. alone on the other side. Masu. Then they'll move up to linebacker, most likely Azeez Al Shayer, to the lone side of Anderson Jr. or Hunter. It will look like this:
From here, the Texans hope to protect the opponent's offensive line 5-0. If you have five immediate threats on your offensive line and you're going to protect them man-to-man. When Houston forces teams to isolate protection, they pound them with picks, stunts, and various loops that work like pick-and-rolls in basketball. We have two good EDGEs on the outside that can really push the offensive line's hands by making sure they get the tackle and then play the game with the other linemen. What I like about this pass rush game is that instead of having Al Sha'ir rush straight into the A-gap, he lets him stunt with Hunter and nobody from behind this overloaded front line comes flying in from the stunt. It's about getting Anderson Jr. out of the way. . Anderson Jr. hit Justin Herbert in the arm, and a chaotic play resulted in the victory.
Now, the Texans will face a team that simply gutted a defense that operates the same way they do. According to Sports Information Solutions, in their last matchup, Houston pressured QB Patrick Mahomes on 12 of his 45 dropbacks. On 12 dropbacks when pressured, the Chiefs went 7-10 for 60 yards and 0.28 EPA per play. The Texans' 26.7% pressure rate was 13th on the season, but what stood out the most when watching the game going back was how often the Chiefs answered when the Texans showed pressure. It was.
Houston likes to be in Cover 1 when he makes these pressure looks. There's a good reason for that. CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are phenomenal. According to SIS, Houston plays the fourth-most Cover 1 snaps in the NFL when sending five or more blitzers, and when you filter to third down specifically, they jump to second place. Knowing this about the Texans, Kansas City issued a voluminous response to the men's coverage. This version of the Chiefs is a West Coast offense enthusiast's dream. They're currently using speed to beat opponents with running back Hollywood Brown, but they're also going horizontally and opening up lanes for Travis Kelce to sit in the gaps. Mahomes still shreds man coverage, but now uses stacks and natural picks to pry open lanes and gain leverage. In this game against the Texans, Kansas City asked Kelce for a man or zone tell, and when he saw the defender follow him, the Chiefs knew it was man. They have a schemed stack with WR DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy, but Worthy fakes when he gets inside and immediately sprints to the outside. Gained 15 yards on a simple leverage play.
I wonder if Houston will try to throw more zone in this situation to take Kansas City down a second time. This is also a risk, as Patrick Mahomes is very good against the zone. However, the outcome of the game will be determined by whether Houston's pass rush impacts Mahomes and makes life difficult for him.
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
This game will be all about how the Lions protect their other scrambling QB, Jaden Daniels. Quite simply, Jaden Daniels is the engine that keeps the Commanders' offense going. Whether it's his steadily improving golf skills as a passer or his strength as a runner, the offenses of coaches depend on his abilities. There are two aspects of this matchup that particularly interest me. Daniels scrambles and targets over the middle of the field. Against man coverage, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble rate and 0.13 EPA per play. He's a very dynamic force as a runner when he can punish man coverage, and the commanders have built this offense to allow Daniels to loosen it up as a runner every time he sees the lane. . Actually, Lions aren't that strong at scrambling! He ranks 19th in the league in EPA per play on scrambles and 20th in positive play rate. However, they lead the remaining teams in the playoffs in Cover 1 percentage, leaving a slight gap for runners like Daniels in Cover 1.
Still, I think I'm more concerned about the Lions' pass defense in Cover 1 against this team, especially the linebackers. Daniels hasn't put up numbers in coverage games this season (ranked 19th in EPA total), but against Tampa he showed even more ability to create holes in the middle of the field. He threw passes against Cover 1 for over routes against opposing corners in Tampa Bay, thus forcing WR Terry McLaurin into over routes a lot. I love how McLaurin moves this route to the inside and steps this route to create more separation.
As for Detroit, they have three players in circulation: LBs Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, and CB Amik Robertson. Anzalone returned in Week 18 in a blowout win over the Minnesota Vikings, playing a steady role in the middle of the defense, especially in pass coverage. He was tasked with guarding tight end TJ Hockenson, but his physicality really frustrated the Vikings tight end. I think that will be against Zach Ertz, who Daniels really trusts in the passing game.
