It's a weekend game, if not an entire season. Ravens vs. Bills is a heavyweight matchup in the AFC, with the winner likely cementing their status as Super Bowl favorites. Two of the league's best offenses, led by two quarterbacks with equal claims to the MVP award, couldn't get any better.
Here's why you can choose Buffalo. The weather, the outdoor stadium, and Josh Allen's ability to make something out of nothing are the biggest selling points for the Bills, but ultimately there are three big reasons why the Ravens can win and move on.
Part 1: Difference in defensive power
The biggest difference between the Ravens and Bills this season is on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore ranks sixth in the league in defensive DVOA, while the Bills rank 11th. It may seem like a small difference, but the gap between these teams is very thin, and that's what matters.
When you play the two against each other on less advanced metrics, you can see why the Ravens are so strong.
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Pass TD is allowed
Ravens: 19th place
Bill: 24 days -
Allowed to pass YPA
Ravens: 13th place
Bills: 17th -
Rush TD allowed
Ravens: 7th place
Bills: 10th place -
YPA rush allowed
Ravens: 1st place
Bills: 19th place
These are all relatively small margins, but again, razor-thin margins. Any noticeable defensive advantage goes to Baltimore, and when these teams are so close offensively, that ends up being a more important factor.
2nd place: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson's feet
The 2024 season is all about the return of running backs, so it's no wonder seven of this year's top 10 rushers all made the playoffs. There's no need to go into detail about Derrick Henry's career, but the dimension he adds to the offense is profound.
Conceding goals has been an issue for Buffalo this season. The team ranked 12th in yards allowed and 19th in yards per attempt. This becomes even more problematic when you consider what Lamar Jackson can do with designed runs.
In the past, the answer to stopping Baltimore's offense was relatively simple. The idea was that once Lamar was contained, everything else would take care of itself. when he was forced to be the quarterback and As the leading rusher, Jackson was under pressure to play hero ball every game. Now, the team can easily pivot and make Henry the focal point if needed, and it pays off in a big way.
While the Bills have the advantage when it comes to passing, it's the run game that will probably define this matchup.
Part 3: Pass rush
A game like this comes down to who can slow down the opposing superstar QB more often, and Baltimore has a clear advantage here. The Ravens' pass-rushing big three – Kyle Van Noy (12.5 sacks), Odafe Oweh (10 sacks) and Nnamdi Madubuike (6.5 sacks) – have combined for more than 90 pressures this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills' top three pass rushers combined for 20 sacks and 69 pressures. That's a big difference, especially with Madu Buike at the DT position, who accumulated 40 pressures for the Ravens this season.
The key is to collapse the pocket from the midfield and disrupt the play before it starts. It also helps prevent Allen from cutting the Ravens up the middle with his legs. It's not about completely shutting down a QB like Josh Allen, because he's good enough to make money. Simply slow him down even more so they can slow down your player. That's why the Ravens have the advantage here.
After all, this game will be the biggest coin toss of the weekend. It really could go either way, but there are some solid reasons to believe Baltimore will be in the driver's seat heading into Sunday.
