When it comes to soccer, there are rules when choosing a rematch. When two teams play each other for the second time, the team that didn't win the first time is usually chosen to win the second time.
But this week's NFL playoff rematch, especially Chiefs vs. Texans, found itself breaking that rule. Houston's defense looks like a repeat of the 2000 Ravens' wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers, but it can't stand up against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are three reasons why the Chiefs should beat the Texans and advance to the AFC Championship.
While Houston is depleted, the Chiefs are getting better.
The injury report for the Texans this week…isn't very good.
The Houston names I'm really worried about are RB Joe Mixon and LB Azeez Alshayer. Al Shair missed the first game against the Chiefs, where Kansas City continued to consistently attack the offensive nature of Houston's linebackers. By not placing the QB in the middle of the defense, everyone else will be higher up on the depth chart, giving Kansas City an advantage. Mixon is huge if he can't play. Amid the offensive ineptitude that Houston experienced this year, Mixon added physicality to the backfield and kept that offense on schedule in the wild-card win. Playing without a reliable threat in the backfield and an offensive line that can poke holes is going to be disastrous.
On the contrary, Kansas City is getting healthier. DT Chris Jones is playing, and so is WR Hollywood Brown. In addition, returning cornerback Jalen Watson to the secondary room gives him more versatility and allows DC Steve Spagnuolo to mix up matchups with wide receiver Nico Collins. Kansas City is gearing up for another push in the playoffs, and getting back healthy at the right time will create big problems for Houston.
Kansas City's ultra-West Coast offense brought out the best in DeMeco Ryans.
In previous matchups against DeMeco Ryans' defense, the Chiefs have used motion and misdirection to get the most out of their defense, just peppering a hyper-aggressive defense with jabs until Mahomes hits a haymaker. I've done it. The Chiefs' hyper West Coast offense is built to utilize motion to create impact and disruption through stacks and bunches, giving this defense as much space as it needs to stretch horizontally. In their last matchup, QB Patrick Mahomes had an impressive 0.3 EPA per play and a 53.1% success rate despite only having an aDOT of 5.7. He was tearing the Texans defense to the core, which didn't bode well for Houston.
big game spag
Let's get back to the spag part of this story. The Chiefs' defense always improves in the playoffs, and the defensive coordinator follows suit. Spagnuolo always seems to save his best work for the playoffs, constantly dragging top offenses into the mud. For the Texans, I'm concerned about this style of matchup where they get dragged into a game of ball control because they might not score enough points. In addition to their big game coordinator, the Chiefs have the best big game defender in the game right now in DT Chris Jones. Since 2022, Jones has totaled 22 pressures, 2.5 sacks, and opened up a lot of lanes for the team's other pass rushers. Once Jones is healthy and the calendar turns to January, he will ramp up his play. That could help Kansas City win against a hit-and-miss Texans interior.
