Like it or not, we're not in Kansas anymore.
President Trump is taking this country on a completely different geopolitical path. The land of Oz, particularly in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, has a future that is yet to be determined.
One thing is clear. Globally speaking, this is Trump's world. The Biden administration's self-defeating passivity is gone, 47thFor better or worse, the president is forcefully making his case on the world stage.
There are hints of what's likely to happen on Trump's first day in office. While signing a series of executive orders in the Oval Office, President Trump memorably admonished Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Essentially, President Trump spoke to President Putin He is losing in Ukraine. “He's not doing very well,” he commented, observing that Putin was “trying very hard.”
President Trump then twisted the knife, pointing out that “most people thought the war would be over in about a week, but now it's been three years.” He went on to claim that “there are figures that approximately one million Russian soldiers were killed.”
Remarkably, the Biden-style White House's fears of Putin's evergreen nuclear bluff have disappeared. Instead, we have a president who is supremely confident that he has already won in Ukraine. And he took the blame home, mocking Putin's wartime leadership and saying, “That's not the way to run a country.”
On Wednesday, President Trump told his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, “ 100 days deadline To end the war in Ukraine. How that is resolved is still a work in progress, but it's new sanctionstariffs and cancellations precision deep strike weapon This is because a strike within Russia is being discussed. President Trump issued another warning to Putin on Wednesday. Cut the deal or, as he put it in all caps, “things will only get worse.”
Biden's permissive environment, first witnessed with his premature and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, came to an abrupt end. President Trump's White House is seeking to reestablish Washington as an active promoter of world affairs, rather than an overly cautious and reactionary player.
In fact, the evidence was already emerging before President Trump took office. Hamas' decision to enter into a ceasefire with Israel was undoubtedly influenced by President Trump's repeated warnings. [would] If Hamas fails to begin releasing hostages, including American citizens, by the presidential inauguration on October 7, it will “break out.”
The policy known as “maximum pressure,” originally launched against Iran by the first Trump administration, has now become the new doctrinal catchphrase for all of U.S. foreign policy. This applies not only to economic aspects, but also to all means of national power, including military, diplomatic, and informational aspects.
Iran will be the first to feel Trump's anger. Tehran is accelerating nuclear detonations. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is strengthening military and economic ties with President Putin. In Moscow last week, three days before Trump's inauguration, President Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian A “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement” was concluded.
The extensive bilateral agreement spanning two decades includes military cooperation and is part of a new axis of evil that was not yet fully formed when President Trump left office on January 20, 2021. It's a stark reminder of what we're facing. It was the exigencies of President Putin's battlefield losses in Ukraine and, most notably, Kiev's daring continued military invasion of mainland Russia in the Kursk Oblast.
Considering Iran's status as part of President Putin'sevil arsenalAlong with North Korea, President Trump cannot geopolitically allow Khamenei to become a nuclear power. While North Korea is effectively kept in check by China in the Indo-Pacific, a nuclear-armed Iran would become an uncontrollable wild card for Israeli and US interests across the Middle East.
As things stand, both Russia and Iran are oscillating in the region. The Russian-backed Bashar al-Assad regime has collapsed in Syria and a new government has taken office in Damascus. Ended “49-year investment agreement with Russian construction company Stroytransgaz signed in 2019.”
Since October 7, Israel has been carrying out its own version of a campaign called “Maximum Pressure” that harshly exposes Khamenei's so-called Axis of Resistance across the Middle East. Hamas's governing structure was destroyed. Hezbollah was destroyed in Lebanon. Various Iranian-backed militias have been eliminated and Jerusalem has carried out long-range airstrikes against the Houthis operating in western Yemen.
All that remains is to eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons program and ambitions—and President Trump has shown a potential willingness to do just that. According to December report The Wall Street Journal reported that “President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a recent phone call that he was concerned about an Iranian nuclear detonation.”
So far, economic pressure appears to be President Trump's first choice. However, given Iran's weakened position at the hands of Israel, there is no doubt that now is the time to act. “If we were ever going to actually do something to neutralize nuclear weapons programs, this would be it,” said Mark Dubowitz, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Ultimately, how President Trump confronts both Ukraine and Iran will have a decisive impact on the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Taiwan. Many of Trump's incoming team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Mike Walz, and John Ratcliffe, are China hawks who are well aware of Beijing's malign involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to provide support to President Putin dual use technology For use against Ukraine. And according to U.S. intelligence officials, Beijing Supplying the Houthis “Chinese-made components targeted at ships in the Red Sea in exchange for immunity for Chinese-flagged ships.”
Mr. Xi too concentrated on creation Economic and military footprint in the Western Hemisphere with specific long-range designs for the construction of the Arctic Silk Road, the economic control of the Panama Canal, and the construction of South America's southernmost port facilities to control the Strait of Magellan and the Drake Passage. .
Mr. Biden appears to view all these challenges from a half-empty perspective. But President Trump believes the glass is half full, and has indicated that he intends to fill it to the brim to protect America's national security.
It's not easy. Putin won't just surrender in Ukraine. China is keen to assert itself militarily, leaving much of the US economy and military hollowed out and stripped of key elements.
Can Trump strategically connect the dots on the axis of evil? Time will tell. President Putin, Mr. Xi, Ayatollah Khamenei and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are betting that it can't be done. Now, it's Trump's world to win or lose.
mark tothHe writes about national security and foreign policy. Colonel (retired)Jonathan SweetHe served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years.
