By all accounts, Patrick Mahomes didn't have the best season for a quarterback. Sure, he's 16-1 as a starter, but many agree that the WinLoss record is an overuse statistic for a QB. That's why he's not an MVP finalist this year.
Despite this, he is still the league's biggest difference maker and is recognized as the best player. So why isn't the public backing the Kansas City Chiefs (-2) as short house favorites?
My theory is that a lot of people are overreacting to a few regular season games where Kansas City escaped a loss with some lucky plays. Yes, special teams blocked a Denver Broncos field goal in Week 10. The Las Vegas Raiders lost a snap that could have led to a game-winning field goal in Week 13.
Personally, I would basically dismiss them regardless of whether KC lost the game or not. We routinely see elite teams suffer the odd regular season loss. That's often why professional bettors put the underdog back. The best teams don't always match their abilities, especially in a long regular season.
The bottom line is that the Chiefs won and covered four straight games, which appears to have activated “playoff mode.” I'm not ready to bet on them with such a small point spread. A two-point line basically matches what they are trying to accomplish. It's about winning games and going to the Super Bowl.
That being said, I understand the anxiety of helping them cover this spread. The Bills suffered their only loss of the season to Mahomes with a 30-21 home win in Buffalo in Week 11.
Therefore, I see Teaser as having solid value in supporting the bill. This is essentially a parlay by adjusting the points spread out 6 points on each leg. Getting the Bills +8 is the only way I'm betting this game. I think they have a chance to win, and I don't imagine them blowing the Chiefs out. This is not the same high-octane chief crime.
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Mahomes is far more valuable by adjusting the point spread, as he finds ways to win with a variety of late heroics. Obviously moving 6 points in your direction will give you an attraction, but the key is to find a scenario where it proves to be a difference maker. I think we have it here.
Now we need to find the second leg for the teaser to cash in. The logical choice is to move Eagle from -6 to Pick'em, but you can find other options elsewhere. I happened to be betting against Notre Dame at -2.5 on Ohio State, which has already cashed out, but I'm not against other Sunday options like the Eagles or the basketball game .
