Politicians gathered to consider concessions to some of the allied invaders without consulting the country's leaders. The rally was not the 2025 Riyadh Summit in Ukraine, but the 1938 Munich Conference to determine the fate of Czechoslovakia.
After gaining power, Adolf Hitler raised Germany, occupied Rhineland, and annexed Austria. anschluss – A clear violation of Treaty of Versailles.
The alliance's acquiescence to these moves encouraged him. In the summer of 1938, he demanded that Czechoslovakia give the German population to the empire and threatened to take it with force if necessary.
Czechoslovakia refused, with Britain and France as allies. Europe wobbled on the brink of war.
Later, Hitler's ally Benito Mussolini, Italian fascist ruler, proposed four power meetings to solve this problem. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Eduardo Daradier competed in Munich to meet two dictators.
After only one day of negotiations, they signed Munich agreement On September 30th, Hitler accepts the demands of territory. Czechoslovakia had not spoken about the issue.
Chamberlain returns to London as a hero and declares to the British that he has secured it.Peace in our times. Hitler already said that Sudetenland had his “The last territorial demand” in Europe.
From Winston Churchill, the political wilderness I said Chamberlain, “You have been given a choice between war and dishonor; you have chosen dishonor, and you will go to war.”
The true words were never spoken. In March 1939, the Germans did not oppose the rest of Czechoslovakia and invaded Poland in September. Encouraged by past success, Hitler doubted whether his allies would oppose him.
“Our enemies are… not men of action, not masters. They are small worms,” he said. I told his general. “I saw it in Munich.”
To alleviate Hitler and not Putin. Despite the persuasive examples of Munich, Ukraine could suffer the same fate as Czechoslovakia.
This week, Russian officials We met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia With a US delegation consisting of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle Eastern mission Steve Witkov to end the war in Ukraine. No Ukrainians or European representatives have been invited.
party “We have agreed to appoint a high-level team to begin working on the path to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible.
They did not mention the inclusion of Ukraine in these talks.
The loss of territory and negotiated settlements are perhaps the best results Ukraine can expect. But like Zelensky I made it clear For JD Vance on Friday, the agreement would not be accepted without Ukrainian participation. “Europeans need to be at the negotiation table too,” he added.
Zelensky is probably reconciled with the loss of territory. Russia will not abandon Crimea, which was seized in 2014. The Ukrainian forces were unable to recapture the territory that was lost after the invasion in 2022.
The real problem is “Security Guarantee,” a promise that the allies will enforce an agreement with Russia. Without that, the peace agreement would merely be a temporary ceasefire.
With the support of Anglo-France, Czechoslovakia had a chance to fight, but the country was vulnerable when the allies abandoned it and handed out Sudetenlands at the mountain fortress.
Zelensky faces a similar threat and has good reason to fear that his country will also be abandoned.
Trump said in a phone conversation with Putin. NATO Membership Ukraine is “unrealistic,” followed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegses in a statement that NATO forces should not be deployed in Ukraine as peacekeeping forces.
Putin had scored before the debate began. A major victory. Trump has finished Russian Separation We made a big concession with NATO. Zelensky can oppose what the parties reach in Riyadh trade, but as long as Ukraine relies on US military assistance to survive, he may have little choice but to accept it. Not there.
The government is already floating Quid pro quo Contract: In exchange for the US military, 50% of the US ownership of Ukraine's rare earth minerals guarantees a peace agreement.
Whether the US is sending troops or not, ongoing military aid could be conditional on Zelensky, who accepts this outrageous deal.
The agreement reached in Riyadh may create a ceasefire, but it will not bring lasting peace to Eastern Europe.
Putin is encouraged, just as Hitler named after Munich. After rebuilding his army, he aims for a new conquest.
Moldova's small country would be a simple target as Russia already effectively controls its breakaway region. Transnistria.
Georgia The South Caucasus is also vulnerable. Russia controls two separatist states, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He defeated Georgia in a short war in 2008. The United States and its NATO allies were unable to intervene.
Putin was also able to strengthen the hold of the Kremlin Central Asia Republicsome experts believe that they strengthened economic and military ties or weakened due to their immersion in Ukraine through their profession. Like Georgia, the Western Alliance cannot stop him.
The Baltic Republic and Poland are naturally concerned about whether the encouraging Putin will oppose them.
They remember playing cards Campaign Promise He would tell Russia to “do whatever they want” in his announcement that as president he will not be bound by the organisation's collective defense agreements, including European countries that do not meet NATO spending guidelines.
Vance Aggressive speech Last week in Munich, sending shockwaves throughout Europe, raising doubts about the new administration's commitment to the alliance. French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for an emergency summit in Europe to discuss security concerns. For the first time since the alliance was established in 1949, American European allies were no longer able to provide assistance to the United States. A Paris conference will help you listen to Zelensky's advice. It's time to create a robust European defence force. Such a force will not only block Putin, but will prevent them from being bullied by the US.
Whatever you decide in Riad, or if there is, American negotiators should remember the lessons of Munich.
Tom Mockaitis is a professor of history at Depaul University; “Traditional unconventional war: A history of modern conflict.”
