The division between different factions of the GOP is beginning to take shape in key states ahead of the 2025 and 2026 elections.
In Florida, when Rep. Byron Donald launched his campaign with President Trump's support, Casey DeSantis is pondering the governor's bid. In Arizona, a full-scale major battle could unfold in the state's competition between Trump-backed governors between Karin Taylor Robson and former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs. And in Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton has made serious indications that he will challenge incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the state Senate primary.
These new dynamics could lead to expensive, bruising primary elections as the party seeks to maintain a grip on power even in red states throughout the Trump administration.
One of the common denominators in Florida and Arizona is the influence of Trump's support. The coveted backing gave GOP primary candidates access to resources and name boosts.
Trump supported Robson in December, and since she announced her candidacy earlier this month, she has promoted her support for the president. The president likewise supported Donald on true social days before lawmakers officially launched his campaign this week.
Unlike Robson, Donald has not yet faced any major challenges. However, the two races could see the Bruise GOP primary for very different reasons.
FL Governor's Race
In Florida, you can go back to the brewing battles with Ron DeSantis and Donald, falling into the lawmaker's decision to support Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The two also understood the state's education guidelines set by Ron DeSantis on Black History in 2023.
Although Donald has complemented the governor ever since unveiling his run, the governor continues to promote First Lady as a strong and potential candidate. When asked about whether he would run for governor on Friday, Casey DeSantis told reporters, “If you see a fork on the road, I'll take it.”
Early voting shows that state first lady has advantages over Donald when it comes to name IDs. A poll released last week by the University of North Florida Polling Institute found that 33% of registered Florida voters have never heard of First Lady, while 66% say they have never heard of Donald.
“She obviously doesn't intend to receive support from Trump. What we're potentially seeing is the main Republican battle between Trump and DeSantis,” said Justin Safee, a strategist for the Florida Republican.
Arizona Governor's Race
In Arizona, billionaire businessman and former governor candidate Robson is about to lean more towards Trump's rhetoric and party's populist wing after losing his primary and his approval in 2022.
Trump's support for Robson this time is seen as a major boost, but the Bigs have solid, conservative grassroots ties.
“Robson is conservative, but she certainly doesn't have the conservative record that Biggs has,” said Brian Sicchick, an Arizona-based Republican strategist and former Trump campaign staffer.
“I still argue that Biggs will need co-editing to make this a race. Two major factors are resources, with Trump's support and Karrin Taylor Robson both now,” he continued. “I'm not saying that without Trump's support, Robson's resources with Trump's support is a pretty strong punch.
Opinion survey Released this week Arizona's Public Opinion Pulse showed Robson with 11% support among registered Arizona Republicans, while Bigs received 14% support. Interestingly, conservative activist Charlie Kirk also received 14% support.
Texas Senate Race
It's even more unclear how things will pan out in the Texas Senate race, where Paxton is publicly cheating on the possibility of taking on the challenge. Paxton told conservative commentator Tucker Carlson in an interview earlier this month that he was “watching” though he wasn't sure if he was certainly running.
Early votes show that Paxton could pose a serious threat to Cornyn in the Republican primary. The Texas Political Project and the vote gathering from the University of Texas at Austin show Cornyn a 48% approval rate among voters in states that identify as Republicans. Meanwhile, Paxton's approval rate was 60%.
Paxton calls Cornyn “anti-Trump” and claims he is more loyal to the president. Cornyn supported Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, but not until after winning the New Hampshire Primary.
“The only outcome that most people can play in a positive way is finding what Trump gives Paxton,” the unknown Republican strategist said. “If Paxton runs, I don't know how Trump won't get behind him, so is there anything that can give him an administrator so he won't run to him? That race and that scenario will test the Trump boundaries in DC by extreme measures in regards to its relationship with the Senate.”
However, Paxton comes with luggage. He was charged in 2015 as attorney general in the first year of his tenure and was charged with securities fraud in allegations that state legislators sought investment in a server company that had not made clear that it was being paid by the company. Paxton pleaded not guilty. After his trial was delayed, Paxton signed a contract with the prosecutor in 2024, paying $300,000 and participating in community service to avoid further proceedings.
Cornyn has a huge amount of resources behind him as well. Punchbowl reported that Senate veterans raised more than $100,000 at the event that launched their re-election bid in Washington this week.
“I think there will be a lot of tension in Texas' political circles, donor circles, magazine call about what to do with that particular race,” the strategist said.
Strategists should note that Trump's role in each primary election differs based on the state. More importantly, the governor's race may play differently than the Senate race.
“These governor races are very personal to the state,” the strategist said. “Yes, Trump's support is important. Yes, what's going on in Washington is important. Yes, the kind of policies and success we have as a party is important. But the way primary and general election voters watch the governor's race is that they are much more personal. They're about the people involved in running.”
