BANGKOK – China’s exports jumped 12.4% in March with a surge in activity the last year, with analysts predicting a sharp setback as businesses rushed to beat the rise in US tariffs imposed by President Trump.
Imports fell 4.3% in March to $211.3 billion, the Customs reported, far exceeding $313.9 billion worth of exports, leaving trade surplus of $102.6 billion.
“But the freight is set to stop by over the next few months and quarters,” Capital Economics’ Julian Evans Pritchard said in the report. “I think it could take years for China’s exports to regain their current levels.”
China’s trade surplus surged to a record $99.22 billion in 2024, with exports rising 5.4%, helping to compensate for slower growth at home as the country slowly recovers from the property market crisis and the prolonged effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
After taking office, Trump was the first to order a 10% increase in tariffs on imports from China. He later raised it to 20%. Currently, China faces 145% tariffs for the majority of exports to the US, based on the latest revision of Trump’s trade policy. China is responding to US products and other measures with 125% tariffs and other measures aimed at pinching the most painful locations, including control over exports of critical minerals needed for high-tech manufacturing, such as the production of electric vehicles.
China’s trade surplus with the United States was $27.6 billion in March as exports rose 4.5%. Exports recorded a $76.6 billion surplus in the US from January to March, despite only rising 2.3% in the first two months of the year.
“It’s highly likely that a familiar US importer saw a tariff hike in April come and frontload the imports,” ING Economics said in the report, but that trend is likely to decline as importers run out of stock while they monitor the latest twists and turns with unpredictable US trade policies.
“As a result, direct trade between the US and China is likely to begin in April,” he said.
Trade data already shows the impact from higher tariffs as exports of value-added items such as shoes and clothing have fallen, and shipments of computer chips, appliances and vehicles have skyrocketed. China’s biggest exports for the first three months of the year are electronic machines, a wide range of categories, including smartphones, laptops and high-tech products, the report shows.
China’s rare earth exports fell nearly 11% in the first quarter of the year as Beijing controlled strategically important materials used in electric vehicles and other high-tech products.
Customs data showed that total exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose 5.8% in the first three months of the previous year, imports sank 7%, leaving a trade surplus of $273 billion.
At the end of Friday, Trump exempts most computer-related items from higher tariffs related to laptops, smartphones and the computers needed to make them, but says his administration plans to announce them within days. Such products accounted for nearly $174 billion in US imports from China last year.
Still, the strict US tariffs on Chinese products raise questions about whether exporters could divert their goods into other overseas markets by giving up on selling to American consumers.
The biggest increase in exports in March was China’s Southeast Asian neighbour, with the US seeing a 8% increase in cargo dollars from China in March from the previous year. Exports to Africa increased by more than 11%, while exports to India increased by almost 14%.
Customs spokesman Liu Darian said China is facing “a complex and serious external situation,” but the sky will not fall. He pointed to China’s diversified export options and huge domestic markets.
When asked about the decline in China’s imports, he told reporters in Beijing that China is the world’s second largest importer for 16 years in a row, increasing its global import share from around 8% to 10.5%.
“Now and in the future, China’s import growth space is huge and China’s large markets are always a great opportunity for the world,” he said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam on Monday as part of a regional tour, taking him to Malaysia and Cambodia, giving him the opportunity to solidify trade ties with other Asian countries facing potentially sudden tariffs, despite Trump delaying the 90-day implementation last week.
China’s exports to Vietnam have increased by nearly 17% from last month, while imports fell by 2.7%.
