A common pitfall of sports bettors is that they overreact to what we last saw. For obvious reasons, it could lead to misguided views of a particular team or player, ignoring the larger sample size of the overall job.
And with so few games on the sports calendar, almost every fan saw the Mavericks rule the king on the road in Wednesday’s play-in game.
At the expense of making that serious mistake, I’m supporting Mavs as a 6.5-point underdog in Memphis on Friday. Simply put, it feels like there are too many points in the game.
First of all, Memphis has fundamental issues and I don’t think he’ll ever be a true candidate for Ja Morant as that best player. The Grizzlies fired their head coach later in the season, and that hasn’t changed anything.
The Griz is 7-22-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 30 games. This means they are running under expectations.
Furthermore, the sharp handicapper is trying to take advantage of injuries that fly under the radar. I think it’s here.
There’s no Jalen Wells in Memphis. Jalen Wells is a rookie, but at 6 feet 8 he is the team’s best boundary defender. He wreaked havoc for opposing scorers throughout the season, and the Grizzlies missed it.
This Dallas season defined “tumultuous” given Luka Donsic’s trade and many injuries.
However, MAVs are healthier and have the flexibility of the size and lineup you need.
Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively defend the 7-foot-4 Zack Eday, while Anthony Davis has the height and athleticism, including Jalen Jackson Jr., who can score from all three levels.
Dallas coach Jason Kidd will use four wing players from the bench in his victory at Sacramento and use these options to protect Morant and Desmond Bain.
The schedule certainly supports the last home team they played on Tuesday.
Dallas will have to play two road games in three days. However, there was a rather biased victory for the Mavs, and the bench allowed Jason Kidd to prevent overuse of the starter. Plus, in Play-In’s short history, the road team on Friday performed well against the spread.
Are you going to bet on the NBA?
I’m a 37-25-1 ATS now Post Sports Sectionand I look for another victory with MAV and points.
Play: Mavericks +6.5 (-110, betMgm Sportsbook)
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Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor and currently serves as Chief Content Manager for Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over 20 years of experience in betting space, including spending 11 years as a host, columnist and betting analyst at ESPN. He is also a rare personality who recorded success – 14th in 2023, 14th in the Las Vegas Supercontest ($37K), two top-10 finishes (58K) in the 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge (58K) and grabbed the headlines with a 297k victory in the 2021 NFL Draft.
