It’s been more than 20 years since the hockey world was treated to the Battle of Ontario in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but it’s time to renew the rivalry between the Ottawa Senator and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs won the Atlantic Division title with 108 points and won the stretch, but the senator won the playoff berth for the first time since 2017 with a 97-point campaign.
Maple Leaf is the -192 favourite for winning the Top 7 Series on Sunday nights at Scottia Bank Arena in downtown Toronto.
Dive into a few different ways and find value in what should be Slobberknocker in the series between two bitter rivals.
Ottawa Senator wins series (+158, fan duel)
This number has been much shorter, but Leaf is taking away money throughout the week, which puts some value on the senses.
It’s an interesting development as the market was skeptical of Toronto for most of the season, as the Leafs were not a strong 5-for-5 team and instead relied on great goaltending from Anthony Sloratz and Joseph Wal.
Ottawa has a great goalkeeper from its own Linus Ullmark, so this top seven can help keep its advantages under control.
There are plenty of tongues that Toronto’s hot finishes could be different with leaves that tormented this spring, but that overlooks the fact that the market is also stretching Ottawa.
The Leafs were well on track to a 118-point pace 17-6-2 in their final 25 games, but the sense was there with them at 16-6-3, making for a 115-point forecast in 82 games.
Given the odds, I think the tale of this matchup tape will be one-sided. But in reality, it is the weak who boast a stronger statistical profile.
Ottawa finished the season ahead of the share of shot attempts, the expected goal rating and the chance percentage of Heidanger scores at 5-5, but Bud owned a better goal difference 5-5 and overall.
However, much of Toronto’s success could be attributed to PDO, the third highest in the 5-5 league (shooting rate + save rate). If any of these numbers are soaked, the margin of error will be significantly reduced.
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And we need to discuss the pressure, as this is the leaf we are talking about.
Toronto is notoriously lacking in the playoffs in each of its final eight postseasons (including losing the last five in the bubble), and has won one series since 2004.
If the buds are delayed in the early stages of this top seven, the fever will reach points that could affect their play. Meanwhile, Ottawa plays with money in the house.
Toronto should be my favorite, but this number is too wide.
Dylan is comfortable to lead the series with goal (24/1, fan duel)
There is a lot of scoring ability in this series.
Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Brady Tokachuk, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Matthew Nees and Tim Statzle are all able to carry the load on their respective teams, but that means there is a high chance that the scores will be widespread among these stars during this top seven series.
Rather than paying a short price to one of the headliners, I skip to Dylan Cozens for a big price.
The former Saber has been fantastic since being bought out at the trade deadline, and has scored 16 points in 21 games, and should play a major role as Ottawa’s second center.
Cozens will also appear in the Top Power Play Unit.
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Michael Lubov is a patient and abundant islander fan, but is a long-time for-profit sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters acquire a pool of brackets, find long shots, and learn how to win the market in mainstream and niche sports.
